今年标志着绿色气候基金(GCF)的首次补充。必威官网是真的吗随着GCF降低现有资金,其金库需要补充。对于缓解气候变化和适应气候变化至关重要的,GCF渠道急需的资金以支持发展中国家的气必威官网是真的吗候行动。

自2015年开始运营以来,GCF已分配50亿美元用于102个项目和计划,包括支持清洁能源,沿海保护,洪水管理和为弱势社区的气候韧性生计。必威官网是真的吗该基金在催化全身或变革性变革朝着低排放和气候富裕的未来迈进。必威官网是真的吗基金有继续其重要工作的资源至关重要。

补充GCF的资源是《巴黎协定》核心的“大型讨价还价”的核心:发展中国家加入了发达国家减少排放的发展,而发达国家则支持动员资源,以帮助贫困国家为气候行动付费。必威官网是真的吗该协议重申了发达国家的承诺,即到2020年动员每年1000亿美元的气候融资,而GCF是实现该目标的关键部分。必威官网是真的吗这些国家必须通过为GCF提供雄心勃勃的财政支持来证明他们对巴黎协定的支持。

This week, governments and other key stakeholders are gathering in Oslo for a formal meeting of the GCF to discuss many issues, including the strategic direction of the fund and its performance so far. But the big question on everyone's mind is: What should be the target for replenishment, in dollars and cents?

让我们阐明政府如何解决这个问题。

How Governments Pledged Money in The Start-Up Phase

In November 2014, contributor governments pledged a total of $10.3 billion to the GCF as part of the so-called the "Initial Resource Mobilization." Pledges were based on discussions between potential contributors, representatives of the GCF Board and GCF management. The discussions did not lead to an agreed contribution target, though some stakeholders floated a target of $10-15 billion.

Twenty-three developed-country governments contributed the bulk of the total pledges. Several developing countries also contributed, though they did so on a voluntary basis. As such, those contributions do not count towards the $100 billion climate finance mobilization target.

Ultimately, individual country pledges were not based on a rigorous methodology. Rather, they were set, more or less arbitrarily, by each individual contributor based on the politics of the time. As such, the $10.3 billion that resulted in the end was, while a good start, more accidental than the product of a deliberate and transparent logic.

计算股票的一种更公平的方法

去年,WRI推出了一个新工具,GCF贡献计算器1.0。该计算器允许用户输入总补给目标,然后按国家 /地区计算对GCF的贡献。该计算基于工作论文中描述的客观和透明方法为GCF的第一次补充设置舞台。We proposed a formula to calculate a "scaled indicative minimum threshold" (IMT) to encourage contributors to provide funding at a comparable level to their peers.

IMT的目的是基于“污染者支付”的良好哲学做出贡献。因此,基于IMT对GCF的贡献公式反映一个国家经济的规模及其当前和历史的温室气体排放。它还值得称赞那些减少人均排放的国家。

Now, as we approach the GCF's first replenishment, contributing governments have an opportunity to be more intentional and transparent about a collective replenishment goal. There are several ways they could do so, laid out below as well as in aGCF贡献计算器2.0

基于当前公告的野心的方案

One approach is to base the overall replenishment target on the trend set by two ambitious countries that have already announced their intention to pledge. In late 2018, Germany and Norwayannouncedtheir intent to double their 2014 contributions to €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) and NOK3.2 billion ($413 million), respectively. We have created a new version of our web toolGCF贡献计算器2.0根据这些公告显示三个可能的方案。

美国和GCF。美国承诺在2014年向绿色气候基金捐款30亿美元,并于2017年初转让了10亿美元必威官网是真的吗。但是,特朗普政府表示,这不会为绿色气候基金做出贡献。在承认a)美国承担气候变化的巨大历史责任的事实中必威官网是真的吗没有美国。

How much should countries contribute if they all behaved like Germany or Norway?

1. Adjusted doubling scenario

在这种情况下,我们假设所有贡献者都只是像德国和挪威这样的原始贡献(以国家货币为单位)加倍。但是,我们还采用调整以确保所有贡献者的支持水平可比,在启动阶段(2014年),14个贡献者的贡献少于IMT所指出的。在这种两倍的情况下,我们将它们撞到IMT。结果,这14个国家的总份额高于其原始贡献的一倍。

Replenishment total: $22.5 billion, or $14.1 billion without the United States

2.德国场景

在这里,我们还假设各国的贡献增加了一倍,但是这一次,每个人(至少相对)至少和德国一样雄心勃勃。我们假设德国宣布15亿欧元等于总价值的8.65%(其IMT)。(我们将德国的公告转换为美元,然后计算总数。)随后,该价值被用作计算2014年十四个国家的捐款的基础。其他八个国家(至少雄心勃勃)正如2014年德国一样,假定其GCF贡献增加了一倍。

补充总额:没有美国的239亿美元,或145亿美元

3.挪威场景

这种方法类似于德国情景,但我们使用挪威的数字来计算补货总数。与其他具有类似责任和能力的人相比,挪威的公告相对较高;在2014年,只有瑞典的野心比挪威更高。结果,挪威的公告作为基础导致了更高的补给水平。这也意味着,除了瑞典以外的所有国家都必须做一倍以上的第一笔承诺,并应用其IMT,以像挪威一样雄心勃勃。

Replenishment total: $66.5 billion, or $36.2 billion without the United States

基于需求的方案

另一种方法是根据发展中国家的财务需求设定目标。迄今为止,尚无对发展中国家需求的全面评估,尽管《联合国气候公约》必威官网是真的吗财务常务委员会将每四年从2020年开始就此提供报告,这可能会为未来的补充提供信息。目前,人们可以将支持GCF支持的请求用作对财务需求的粗略信号。如果我们假设GCF将资助其所有当前请求, this would suggest areplenishment total of $15 billion

Governments could also set a replenishment target based on how much the GCF Secretariat can program in a given year.在其最新工作计划中, the GCF Secretariat anticipates being able to put forward between每年35亿美元和50亿美元在资助建议中。GCF尚未确定补货资金将要覆盖的时期;对于其他资金,通常是3或4年。假设在这种情况下有四年的时间表明补给范围为14-200亿美元

Wide Financial Support Required to Accelerate Climate Action

Whichever scenario and methodology are used, the first replenishment must result in an ambitious outcome. In addition to developed countries, other groupings of nations could—on a voluntary basis—contribute to GCF's capital as well; 17 developing countries did so in 2014 and this could be amplified in 2019.

The Paris Agreement demands ambition, and the need for urgent action was reconfirmed in IPCC's 1.5 report. A strong GCF replenishment is an important step towards achieving the Paris goals.