As China looks to develop its 14th Five-Year Development Plan, the country has a great opportunity to shift toward a higher-quality and lower-carbon economic development strategy. While China has a relatively high annual GDP growth rate compared with the rest of the world, that growth has been slowing. China’s GDP grew by 6.6% in 2018 compared with an average annual growth rate of 9.6% from 1980 until 2017, but energy-related CO2emissions have ticked向上since 2017. Premier LI Keqiang has acknowledged his年度工作报告到第13个全国人民大会，中国的旧经济驱动力已经用完了。

到2030年，实现中国现代，和谐和创造性社会的目标将需要新的发展途径。中央政府已转向key regional integrationfor China’s next stage of economic development, announcing or strengthening mega-region initiatives like theYangtze River Delta Integration,更大的湾区发展和Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration. This effort aims to foster economic development through technology and innovation that supports high-tech or services hubs, rivaling such metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, New York City and Silicon Valley. If done right, regional integration can also help shift China onto a low-carbon pathway.

通过区域经济一体化的低碳发展

The three regions in the country’s integration strategy are a good starting point for a low-carbon transition in China, as they represent around 35% of the country’s GDP and include some of the most economically dynamic regions of the country. The graphic below shows how these regions stack up against some of the other metropolitan areas in the world that achieved the kind of integration China seeks to foster. WRI is partnering with high-level policy research organizations in China to identify opportunities for new sources of green growth that can help drive this regional integration.

可以同时实现高质量的经济发展和深层脱碳

在最近的政策对话in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, WRI President and CEO Andrew Steer described the new consensus the world has reached over the last 10 years: Economic growth and deep decarbonization can be achieved simultaneously. A 2018 report from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate estimated that the world couldunlock $26 trillionin net economic benefits through 2030 by taking bold climate action. Jiankun He, who serves on China's Advisory Committee on Climate Change, also pointed out that transitioning to a high-quality development mode is essential for China to achieve long-term deep decarbonization, as the country has committed to do. At present, China's carbon productivity lags far behind the world's major industrialized countries. In 2017, China generated $1,200 per ton of CO2排放，韩国，美国和日本分别生产2,480美元，3,600美元和4,000美元，每吨CO2emitted (see graphic below). To achieve both its economic ambitions and its 2030 climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, China must radically seek a green growth model that converts today’s environmental pressures into new economic benefits.

由区域整合驱动的技术创新是绿色发展的关键来源

与工业经济相反的基于知识的经济是由技术创新驱动的，需要较少的环境和物质投入。中国大湾地区的整合，杨特尔三角洲地区整合和北京-Tianjin-Hebei整合有望通过更好的研究，开发与演示合作，技术转移和更一体化的市场来创建区域创新集群。来自美国主要大都市地区的数据表明CO2emissions per capita in major knowledge-based metropolitan areas are generally lower than the national average.

Against this background,wriis exploring key issues for China to address as it embarks on decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions through regional integration. Forthcoming research will address issues like sectoral transformation, regional policy coordination, long-term climate strategy, environmental-economic synergies and more. Better regional integration will enable China to embark on a low-carbon transition and adopt more ambitious climate policies in the 14th-Five Year period and beyond.