In his speech to the UN General Assembly on September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping of China announced that China will scale up its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to tackling climate change by adopting more vigorous policies and measures in an effort to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.

自从同意2015年《巴黎协定》以来，该公告是有关缓解气候变化的努力的最重要的进步迹象。需要对确切承诺进行进一步的澄清，将来可能需要更多的野心必威官网是真的吗。这是有关这一重要发展的四个关键问题和答案。

1.什么是新的？

The announcement marks the first time that China has set a concrete long-term target of carbon neutrality. This means that by 2060, the country will either stop carbon dioxide emissions altogether, or — more likely — use various means to remove an equivalent amount of any remaining emissions.

习近平还说，中国将寻求在“ 2030年之前”的排放达到顶峰，这与该国根据《巴黎协定》中的最初NDC的变化，“在2030年左右左右达到高峰，并尽早努力达到高峰。”尽管新语言改变了较早的峰值排放时间范围，但它使确切的一年尚不清楚，这为进一步的潜在公告打开了大门，以提高其2030年的承诺。例如，这些可能是作为对其他国家或地区的新承诺的回应。

2. How Will China’s New Goals Impact Global Efforts to Fight Climate Change?

It is hard to overemphasize how transformational China’s carbon neutrality pledge is for international efforts to limit climate change. The Climate Action Tracker估计如果中国达到这个目标，它将将全球变暖预测降低约0.2至0.3摄氏度（约0.4至0.5度F）。这一承诺使世界更接近实现《巴黎协定的目标》，并避免了气候变化的最严重影响。必威官网是真的吗

就是说，the IPCC concludes到2044年和2066年，全球二氧化碳和温室气体（GHG）的排放需要平均达到零净零，以将高于前工业水平的C（2.7摄氏度）低于1.5摄氏度（2.7摄氏度）。所有温室气的净零日期较晚，因为某些非二氧化碳（例如甲烷）的某些非碳二氧化物葡萄干很难逐步淘汰，但非常有效，并且可以使温度更高在短期内。

即使各国在不同时间进行零排放，世界仍然可以达到巴黎协定的目标。但是，为此，2044年一个国家（二氧化碳）和2066年（GHG）的任何净阳性排放都将与另一个国家的净负排放量保持平衡。鉴于中国排放的规模，如果中立目标仅涵盖二氧化碳，则数学可能无法正常工作。

中国对2060年碳中性的承诺是巨大的进步，但比IPCC建议实现1.5度C的目标要晚16年。中国等主要发射器必须遵守这一建议。

Nineteen other countries and the EU have adopted anet zero emissions target， 和more than 100 are considering doing so. Current targets cover a range of time frames; most countries reference specific years between 2030 and 2050, while others like Singapore and Japan use more general references to the second half of the century. The EU, which had been the largest jurisdiction (as the world’sthird-largest emitter) with a net zero target prior to China’s announcement, has committed to reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The U.S., which is currently the world’s second biggest emitter and is by far the most responsible for historical emissions, has no plan to announce any long-term targets under the current administration.

3.中国2030年气候目标如何与其碳中立目标联必威官网是真的吗系起来？

While China’s long-term target may not cover non-carbon dioxide GHGs, the country must also address those gases; current non-carbon dioxide emissions in China have a warming impact greater than all GHGs from Japan or Brazil. Enacting policies to deal with these gases in the 2030 climate commitment could facilitate their ultimate inclusion in China’s long-term vision.

WRI研究shows that China can stabilize non-carbon dioxide emissions by early 2020s. This is a decade earlier than current trajectories and would make China's total non-carbon dioxide emissions return to 2012 levels sometime before 2030.

中国还需要更新其2030年对二氧化碳的承诺，以使短期和中期行动与其长期愿景保持一致。这样做将提高碳中立目标的信誉并削减长期成本。

专家得出的结论是，在技术和经济上，为中国设定更雄心勃勃的2030个目标是可行的。Astudypublished in Nature Sustainability finds that China’s carbon dioxide emissions could peak as early as between 2021 and 2025. Ananalysis中国能源基金会表明，到2030年，非化石能量的份额也可以扩展到25％，这比当前的NDC高出5个百分点。根据剑桥计量经济学的说法，将中国短期和中期行动与2060年愿景保持一致的投资规模可能导致净经济增长 -可能将中国的GDP增加多达5％十年后期。

4. How Can China Fulfill These Ambitious Goals?

由于许多碳去除技术的成本高昂，因此中国的首要任务是将被人为引起的排放量减少到尽可能接近零，然后平衡剩余的排放和等效量的碳去除。

As many investments have a long lifespan, to get close to zero emissions, China needs to immediately stop or curb investment in carbon-emitting infrastructure without carbon capture and storage capacity and dramatically improve the energy efficiency of energy-consuming equipment. Otherwise, the country would need to shoulder the costs of early retirement of these carbon-intensive systems.

根据Global Energy Monitor，中国拥有98,520兆瓦（MW）的煤炭发电厂正在建设中，截至2020年7月，在各种规划阶段，中国有153,726兆瓦。

资料来源：数据基于International Energy Agency (2011)， 和Erickson等。（2015）。

其他短期行动包括启用绿色权力调度 - 优先考虑煤炭生产的可再生能力和低成本的电力 - 以及其他激励措施促进可再生能源，要求不断更新工业能源效率标准，并加速运输车辆的电气化。。

Within a few years, China also needs to scale up investments in energy storage, power grid and hydrogen technologies; reduce the demand for industrial products (steel, cement, plastics, chemical products, etc.); develop alternatives for industrial products; electrify the energy supply for industries; and promote a systemic shift to low-carbon transport modes. Many of these needed measures are aligned with China’s plan on “新基础架构诸如5G，物联网，工业互联网，云计算，区块链，数据中心，智能计算中心和智能运输。

Last but not least, China will need to fully unleash the potential of afforestation, wetland restoration and other natural-based solutions to increase carbon sinks, as doing so will provide environmental, economic and social benefits. The country should also speed up large-scale demonstration of carbon capture and storage from point sources of emissions, which could be catalytic in driving promising frontier technologies, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS). Scaling up research, development and demonstration of BECCS and DACS are also very important.

在气候变化的影响从未更清必威官网是真的吗楚的时候，中国的新气候承诺代表了令人兴奋的士气提升。现在，世界正在观察该国将如何将这些承诺转变为行动。