政府间气候变化（IPCC）最新期间的面板，必威官网是真的吗工作组III（WGIII）：缓解和气候变化必威官网是真的吗, highlights an important message: It’s still possible tolimit average global temperature rise to 2°C,—but only if the world rapidly reduces emissions and changes its current energy mix.

达到这一发现意味着分析使用最新研究和技术建模的1,000多个潜在排放途径。简而言之，那个报告揭示我们目前正在使用的排放轨迹，以及我们需要转移到的轨迹将变暖限制为2°C，避免越来越危险的森林大火，海平面上升，热浪和其他气候影响。必威官网是真的吗

Here are six things you need to know about the level of emissions reductions needed to rein in runaway warming:

1) Without Explicit Action, We Could See More than 4°C of Warming.

人类诱导的年温室气体（GHG）排放量现在比以往任何时候都高。即使所有国家都遵循目前的减少承诺，我们远非一条途径，该途径将全球平均温度升高到工业前水平高2°C。实际上，在没有已经实施的努力的情况下，全球平均表面变暖将比工业前水平高3.7-4.8°C（考虑到不确定性时，全范围为2.5-7.8°C）。

This level of warming would bring disastrous impacts. For example, with each degree of warming, renewable water resources are projected to decline by at least 20 percent for an additional 7 percent of the global population. With warming greater than 2°C, there is a high risk of abrupt and irreversible changes to ecosystems like forests, which would lead to “substantial additional climate change” considering that trees sequester significant amounts of carbon dioxide. And in a 4°C-warmer world, widespread coral reef mortality and food shortages are expected.

2) Limiting Warming to 2°C Is Still Possible.

我们已经花费了我们的50％以上“碳预算”- 我们可以发射的碳排放量，仍然有可能将变暖限制为2oC。但是，WGIII发现，通过采取积极的措施来快速减少排放（见下文），在我们的碳预算范围内，在技术和身体上都是可行的，从而避免了气候变化的一些最严重的预测影响。必威官网是真的吗

3）停留在碳预算之内需要立即采取行动。

该报告强调了这是气候行动的关键十年。必威官网是真的吗到2030年的排放将决定世界转向低排放途径的现实情况。

Essentially, the longer we delay emissions reductions, the more difficult it will be to stay within the 2°C target. Poor choices on infrastructure developments (e.g. buildings and the ways in which cities are built) and will lock societies into emissions-intensive pathways that may be impossible or very expensive to change in time to limit warming.

延迟还将需要以后的空前排放率下降。例如，如果到2030年到2030年，排放量继续保持不变并达到55 Gigatonnes CO2E，则我们需要在2030年至2050年之间平均将全球排放量减少到空前的6％，以将变暖限制为2°C。（作为参考，在2010年，我们处于49 Gigatonnes的CO2E排放量）。

在我们延迟减少的情况下，保持在2°C目标之内也变得非常复杂和昂贵。例如，延迟将导致对潜在风险的技术（例如生物能源结合碳，捕获和存储（BECC）（BECC）等潜在的风险技术，目前在大规模融资和测试方面面临重大挑战，并可能导致超出排放浓度目标。1When models don’t allow for carbon dioxide removal technologies and overshooting of concentrations goals, many find the 2-degree goal not feasible or very expensive.

4）我们需要长期逐步淘汰排放。

Models show that to limit temperature rise to 2°C, global emissions will need to fall by up to 39 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, and up to 72 percent from 2010 emissions levels by 2050.

And perhaps most critically, the report finds that for the majority of scenarios that give a likely chance of limiting warming to 2°C, GHG emissions are “zero or below”2到2100年，需要逐步淘汰温室气体排放。

5) We’ll Need Action from All Regions of the World.

除了减少当地，国家和地区规模的排放外，国际合作将是必不可少的。必威官网是真的吗气候变化是全球共享的问题，因此，每个人，公司和国家都需要参与其解决方案。

There is no one formula for how the world can achieve the necessary emissions reductions. But what is clear is that it will require an international effort.

International cooperation can determine rights and responsibilities for national climate action, as countries have varying capacities to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. If collective actions are perceived to be fair, further cooperation—and action—can be gained.

6）转移到低排放途径需要大规模转换。

Limiting warming will require large-scale changes to energy systems and potentially land use. We could achieve these changes by taking advantage of existing technological and behavioral options, such as:

  • Decarbonizing the majority of electricity generation by 2050;
  • Phasing out coal generation without carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology;
  • Increasing our low-carbon energy supply (e.g. solar, wind, hydroelectric, CCS) by five-fold over the next four decades;
  • Changing consumption patterns, such as reducing food waste and shifting diets; and
  • 切换到最佳，有效的工业技术。这可以将工业部门的能源强度降低25％，考虑到该行业目前负责全球温室气体排放量相当大的份额，这一重大成就。

我们今天做出的选择

WGIII报告提供了关于减少排放量的紧迫和重大挑战的清醒见解，这是为了最好地确保我们可以将变暖限制在2°C。尽管这些挑战最初可能看起来令人生畏，但重要的是要专注于报告概述的解决方案菜单。此外，该报告发现，减少排放有重大的“共同利益”，这使缓解行动更加急切。例如，该报告表明，低排放途径不仅减少了国家对能源价格波动和供应中断的脆弱性，而且还通过遏制空气污染来为人类健康和生态系统带来重大利益。

We may be on the wrong emissions pathway now, but with ambitious action, there is still a chance to move onto the right one. Now is the time for governments at all levels to adopt comprehensive climate policies and invest in a low-carbon future—so that we don’t end up paying the price later.

  • 了解更多：Read一份声明WRI气候和能源计划主任詹妮弗·摩根（Jennifer Morgan）关于最新的必威官网是真的吗IPCC报告。

  1. Concentrations are exceeded temporarily and then are brought down.↩︎

  2. 负排放可以通过CDR技术实现。该报告指出，与CDR相关的重大风险，例如，BECC的土地可用性，有可能存储如此大量的碳的潜力，并指出没有BECCS工厂已在大规模上建造和测试。↩︎