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This week, is expected to more than 100 heads of state and other senior government officials will travel to New York City to attend the Paris agreement signing ceremony, the agreement in the last year in the United Nations framework convention on climate change21 times the conference of the parties (COP21)Through.The UN estimates that the number of countries in the signing of the ceremony will be more than any other international agreementOn the first day signed a number ofTo show the global political support for climate action overwhelming.

Officially joined the agreement process is divided intoTwo steps, the first step is to sign the agreement, the second step is the formal approval.Once there are more than 55 of the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) of the parties (at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions) to complete this process, the agreement will be officially "effect", is legally binding.

The UN secretary-general, ban ki-moon,Calls for world leadersTo sign and ratify the agreement as soon as possible.Good momentum of the process, some countries have in April 22 received before the signing ceremony of the council's approval.

But countries join need how long?To implement gives effect to the Paris agreement 55-55 threshold (55 states parties and accounted for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions) need combination of what country?

"The Paris agreement tracking platform"

Recently, the world resources institute issued a"The Paris agreement tracking platform"Web site.This interactive tool can enable people to monitor the progress of the approval of the Paris agreement, and allows the user to create, share, and embed themselves that can realize the combination of the agreement.

You can try.

When writing this blog, "the Paris agreement tracking platform" is still a blank, because actually haven't signed or a country to join the agreement.Through the selected and click on the national, regional, or a set of negotiations, the user can see which combination may conform to the requirements of the discharge ratio and the number of countries.

Some conclusions are obvious:

We need at least one of the four big emitters to join

As you can see from the following situations, even if all other countries in the world approved the deal, if you don't have four big emitters (China and the United States, the European Union and Russia) emissions from any one of the body, the agreement will not be able to take effect.

The United States and China to work across most but not all of the threshold

The United States and ChinaHave announcedGoing to the Paris agreement signed on April 22, and promised to "as soon as possible" to join the agreement this year.Every country must follow their respective domestic process to approve the agreement.Can according to the President's approval to join us, but for China, also need the approval of the standing committee of National People's Congress (NPC).

The United States and China account for 38% of global emissions, to meet the threshold requirements has played a great role in promoting.But we still need some more big emitters as soon as possible to join (such as Russia, India, Japan, Brazil, Canada, South Korea and Mexico), in order to realize the threshold of 55% of the emissions as early as possible.

Now how do we progress?

Some countries (i.e., Fiji, palau, the Marshall islands, the maldives and Switzerland) have been completed on April 22, signed the Paris agreement domestic approval process.In some countries, such as tuvalu said they will finish the work before signing.

Although these countries account for only a very small proportion of total global emissions, but they take the lead in achieving early approval is very important to meet the requirements of 55 countries.If the other small island developing states and"BBS easily affected by climate vulnerable countries"(必威官网是真的吗the Climate Vulnerable Forum) member states can be approved as soon as possible, we are more easy to achieve this goal.

How long does it take to the Paris agreement comes into effect?

2017 is a reasonable prediction.But if there are some countries join this year, then the agreement will take effect in May this year.Considering the different countries to complete its domestic approval process schedule is not the same, so the effective time is uncertain.

Australia, for example, the effect of requirement need only formal notification in parliament, and introduces the agreement.In Mexico, it needs to be approved by the senate.In Brazil, you need to the senate and the house of representatives in congress approved at the same time.There are some countries, such as Vietnam, the approval process depending on the nature of international agreements.

Although the eu as a whole is regarded as one of the agreement the parties, but it is probably must obtain the consent of the 28 member states to take action.And each member states are required to complete the internal approval process, from the European parliament and the council of ministers agreed to, also need to pass a resolution to approve.So may need several years of time, but even if not to join the European Union, into effect as soon as possible it is still possible.

Although some people have compared the Paris agreement to earlier international climate agreementThe Kyoto protocol,, but there exists a significant difference between both.Although the Kyoto protocol, which has a similar 55 parties/discharge accounted for 55% of the requirements, but the threshold based only on the carbon emissions of developed countries., by contrast, the effect of the Paris agreement taking into account all countries all greenhouse gas emissions, so the effective time is faster than the Kyoto protocol of seven years.

"The Paris agreement tracking platform"Shows all countries to participate in the international climate agreement and make the importance of its effect.April 22 will represent launched in December last year in the process of the next step.All countries should be signed and join the Paris agreement as soon as possible, to send a strong signal that they are working towards a low carbon, adapt to climate change the world.