International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva opening speech
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva giving opening speech at the plenary session of the World Bank's Annual Meetings in Washington, DC. Photo by World Bank / Simone D. McCourtie

国际货币基金组织（IMF）每年评估其190名成员国的经济健康，提出建议，以应对宏观经济和财务挑战，通过所谓的监视过程Article IV surveillance。

On May 25, the IMF — charged with securing economic stability and effective operation of the international monetary system — completed a long-awaited review of its Article IV surveillance processes, the全面的监视审查。认识到气候变化有可能降低生产率或增长前景并增加金融不稳定的潜必威官网是真的吗力，审查评估了气候变化的方式should be factored进入第四条监视。

迄今为止，国际货币基金组织在临时监视中考虑了与气候相关的风险和政必威官网是真的吗策。审查得出的结论是，在许多情况下，应将气候变化（包括气必威官网是真的吗候缓解，适应和过渡风险管理）纳入第四条中，但它不再需要以系统的方式覆盖这些主题。

国际货币基金组织警告说，气候变化的影响和有意义的气候行动成本将是实质必威官网是真的吗性的，并且在国家内部和内部分布不均。但是，通过不采取强制性和系统的方法来包括监视气候，IMF限制了其自身识别和评估国家和全球财务稳定的重大风险的能力。必威官网是真的吗

What are Article IVs and Why do They Matter?

Through Article IV surveillance, the IMF monitors the economic and financial situation of its members on a regular basis and in consultation with national authorities and other domestic stakeholders. It uses this monitoring function to identify possible risks to the macroeconomic stability of a country or of the global economy, and to recommend ways to avoid or minimize those risks. The IMF’s surveillance function is central to its role, which is to ensure the stability of the international monetary system.

These regular health checks matter. They have the potential to influence member countries’ economic policies at the national level. Bilateral surveillance offers the IMF the opportunity to engage with country officials, including ministries of finance and central banks, on key areas of policy and to recommend reorienting the trajectory if deemed necessary.

Additionally, Article IV reports have an important signaling effect for other stakeholders in the international community — including investors, creditors, donors and others — who view IMF Article IV reports as an authoritative source of information on the economic and financial prospects of countries around the world.

Given the important role of Article IV reports, it is critical that they reflect and respond to climate-related risks in a comprehensive and systematic way.

Fazenda Solar Bemol的员工检查了巴西Manaus太阳能农场的第一阶段的盘子。
Employees with Fazenda Solar Bemol inspect the plates of the first stage of a solar farm in Manaus, the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The farm is the largest in the region, capable of serving 570 households. Photo by IMF/Raphael Alves

监视评论对气候有何评论？必威官网是真的吗

直到最近，国际货币基金组织仅在第四条监视中考虑了与气候有关的风险和政策，并相对较必威官网是真的吗少。在2021年的全面监视审查中，国际货币基金组织通过以更系统的方式探索监视报告中涵盖气候的需求迈出了重要的一步。必威官网是真的吗

In its bilateral surveillance activities, the IMF only has a mandate to cover topics or policies that are considered “macro-critical” — an issue that significantly affects a country’s current or future balance of payments and domestic stability. In light of this requirement, the review grappled with questions of whether and when climate-related issues, including climate adaptation, transition risks, and mitigation are macro-critical.

1. Climate Change Adaptation

审查得出的结论是，气候变化的适应性是宏观关键的，非常必威官网是真的吗适合IMF的监视任务，并且与IMF的许多190名成员国有可能相关。此外，国际货币基金组织非常适合向国家提供有关旨在建立财务弹性的与气候相关政策的建议，因为这些政策通常属于国际货币必威官网是真的吗基金组织的传统专业知识领域。旨在帮助气候风格的国家建立财政缓冲区的措施，与IMF必威官网是真的吗常规进行的宏观经济分析类型相吻合。一些适应政策，例如旨在建立物理弹性的政策，可能不在国际货币基金组织的核心专业领域之外 - 因为这些政策可以依靠其他机构的资源和知识。

2. Climate-related Transition Risks

The institution reached similar conclusions on transition risks and policies to manage these risks. As economies decarbonize, certain sectors are likely to face dramatic shifts in asset values or in the cost of doing business; this transition has the potential to pose significant risks — particularly if it occurs rapidly and in an uncoordinated manner. The surveillance review found that this category of risks falls within the IMF’s surveillance mandate and are potentially relevant to nearly all its members. As with adaptation, the IMF is well suited to advise on policies for managing transition risks, and it underlines that transition risk management will likely entail painful adjustments that need to be undertaken to transform entire sectors of the economy.

In a way, the IMF and other international institutions already have a track record of identifying and cautioning against these types of risk, as they have long emphasized the need for economies toeliminate fossil fuel subsidies和diversify away from fossil fuels减轻国际价格波动对一个国家收入的不利影响。现在，他们还需要将潜在的分配影响对劳动力市场和公平考虑因素作为经济转变为低碳发展途径。

3.气必威官网是真的吗候缓解

在缓解气候变化时，审查的结论不太简单。必威官网是真的吗它发现，国际货币基金组织的监视授权可以扩展到缓解气候变化，但只有在一个国家的缓解政策（或缺乏）的情况下，才对国际货币体必威官网是真的吗系产生重大溢出影响。基于这一发现，IMF至少每三年对20个最大的发射器至少每三年强烈鼓励对缓解措施进行覆盖（基于当前的温室气体排放）。

对于其他人来说，将鼓励纳入缓解措施，但没有预料。第四条报告包括缓解措施将评估一个国家缓解政策包含负面溢出的充分性，不仅包括基于碳定价的缓解政策，而且还包括各种减少温室气体排放的政策方法。

People use plastic bottles to catch rainwater in the Sundarbans forest area, Bangladesh.
Plastic bottles are used to catch rainwater in the Sundarbans forest area, Bangladesh, in April, 2021. People living in the Sundarbans region suffer from a water shortage in the dry season as a result of increasing salinity in the groundwater and the Satkhira river, caused by rising sea levels. Photo by IMF/K M Asad

缺少了什么？

The Comprehensive Surveillance Review is a positive first step and lays the groundwork as the IMF further develops its surveillance guidance and climate strategy going forward. More is needed to systematically integrate climate change into Article IV surveillance. This could include:

首先，澄清何时必须解决适应和过渡风险。

Despite acknowledging the potential importance and relevance of climate adaptation and transition risks to much of its membership, the review does not set out clear guidelines specifying when and how these topics will be covered in country-level Article IV reports. Forthcoming guidance on implementation of the surveillance review’s recommendations should establish clear criteria, indicators or thresholds for when these topics must be addressed. This would help avoid continuation of a current ad hoc approach, which leaves discretion in the hands of individual mission chiefs and country officials.

第四条报告中对气候相关风险的深入评估可能会改变气必威官网是真的吗候可剥离国家的财务前景，从而提高国际货币基金组织还需要考虑的潜在股本问题。这样的涉及到开发银行和双边捐助者的需求通过提供公共金融来帮助各国投资弹性，以补充国际货币基金组织的监视。

Second, acknowledging that mitigation risks may be better assessed dynamically.

Identifying those countries whose approach to mitigation has the potential to “significantly influence the effective operation of the international monetary system, for example, by undermining global economic and financial stability,” — the standard established in a2012 IMF decision— is not straightforward. Acknowledging practical challenges, however, focusing only on the top 20 emitters based on current GHG emissions may be overly simplistic. For instance, this approach may exclude large, fast growing economies whose emissions are on the rise, thus requiring a more dynamic assessment over time. As with the recommendations for adaptation and transition risk, simply “encouraging” inclusion of climate mitigation for selected countries allows for considerable discretion, which lacks the rigor of a more systematic and consistent approach.

In addition to taking a more comprehensive approach to inclusion of mitigation in Article IV reports, surveillance guidance should clarify how coverage of mitigation will address equity issues and a just transition.

最后，鉴于潜在的跨界和跨境溢出，将气候风险纳入全球风险评估工具包中。必威官网是真的吗

IMFwarnsthat the costs of meaningful action to combat the effects of climate change will be uneven and may have non-linear effects on GDP levels depending on geographic characteristics. But by adopting a case-by-case approach to including climate and failing to make its inclusion mandatory in specified cases, the IMF is constraining its own analysis of the risks to the global economy. Indeed, the lack of systematic focus appears incongruous with the risks climate poses to global economic and financial stability. For instance, failure on the part of large emitters to adopt appropriate mitigation policies could produce more severe extreme weather events, which could, in turn, increase financial fragilities or external account imbalances in other countries around the globe.

国际货币基金组织的主要旗舰报告（世界经济前景，财政监测量和全球金融稳定报告）可以通过确定与气候相关的漏洞来整合这些问题，这些漏洞可能会跨越边界，并呼吁进行国际合作。必威官网是真的吗这将有助于支持IMF通过强调其气候变化的方法，同时引起全球政策制定者的注意，从而支持IMF采取的指导。必威官网是真的吗

For example, flagship reports could include and present evidence from the newClimate Change Indicators Dashboardin a compelling way and build on this evidence, such that climate is given a weight, which is commensurate with the risks to global stability.

In recent months, the IMF has signaled that it plans to develop its analysis of the economic impact of climate change and strengthen its approach to climate-related risks. The development of detailed surveillance guidance over the coming months and a broader climate strategy offer an opportunity for the IMF to put words to action and integrate climate into core IMF operations in ways that could meaningfully benefit its member countries.

WRI的可持续财务中心正在对IMF第四条监视中的气候变化系统变化进行初步研究。必威官网是真的吗这项研究的结果将在今年年底之前发表在工作论文中。