Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are on track to again climb to a record high in 2019, according to a新报告from theGlobal Carbon Project, putting the world at risk of catastrophic climate change due to these heat-trapping gases. This is further evidence that the plateau in emissions growth between 2014 and 2016 was short-lived: emissions from fossil fuels grew 1.5% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018 and are projected to grow another 0.6% in 2019. This growth is at odds with the deep cuts urgently needed to respond to the climate emergency.

这一令人震惊的新闻发布了,因为将近200个国家聚集在西班牙马德里,以最终确定《巴黎气候变化协定》的规则,并准备在2020年加强其国家气候承诺。必威官网是真的吗

这是六个收获the report随同分析, which offer more detailed insights into the data. The data can also be explored in depth on WRI'sClimate Watch数据平台。

1. Another Year of Growing Emissions

化石燃料碳排放量首次在2018年每年达到10吉甘(OR 37千兆二氧化碳),这是1970年代的两倍以上。
在发达国家已经达到顶峰的发达国家,二氧化碳排放量的下降不足以抵消其他地方的排放增长。Emissions in 2019 are expected to decline in both the European Union and United States by 1.7%, as India’s emissions are expected to rise 1.8% (notably lower than the past five-year growth rate of 5.1%), China’s are expected to rise 2.6% and emissions in the rest of the world are expected to rise 0.5%.

去年,人均排放平均排放量为4.8吨化石燃料二氧化碳。在澳大利亚(每人16.9吨),中国(每人7.0吨),欧盟(6.7)和美国(16.6)(16.6)中,这个数字要高得多。值得注意的是,中国的人均二氧化碳排放现在高于欧盟的排放(尽管历史上没有),而印度的人均排放(每人2.0吨)约占美国的八分之一。

2. Oceans and Land are Soaking Up More Carbon Dioxide

土地和海洋 - 我们的碳汇 - 继续以追踪大气中二氧化碳浓度上升的速度吸收二氧化碳,部分补偿了排放的生长。在过去的十年中,全球海洋每年占2.5吉甘,这是1960年代所做的两倍以上。在过去的十年中,土地每年占3.2吉甘,是1970年代的1.5倍以上。

But our ocean and land sinks could be compromised by future warming, which could limit the amount of carbon dioxide they absorb, making global temperatures rise even faster than they are now.

3. Coal Is on a Clear Decline, but Still Dominates Emissions

煤炭是化石燃料二氧化碳排放的最大贡献者,占全球总数的42%。但是,随着可再生或较低排放的电源在经济上变得更具经济竞争力,并且由于其对气候和健康的影响,越来越多的国家偏离煤炭,有迹象表明煤炭显然正在下降。必威官网是真的吗从2018年到2019年,美国从煤炭发电的生成将下降11%,达到50年以上未见证的水平,约占其高峰于2005年的一半。而且,在英国,煤炭已从2012年的42%下降到2018年发电的5%。

同时,煤炭的使用正在其他地方增加以满足能源需求,尽管比过去更慢。在中国,煤炭使用预计今年将增加0.8%,电力部门的煤炭使用量下降,工业生产的增长下降。在印度,煤炭的二氧化碳排放预计今年将增长1.8%,不到过去五年的平均增长率的一半。

4. Natural Gas, the Fastest-growing Fossil Fuel, Doesn’t Always Replace Coal

Globally, the use of natural gas rose an average of 2.6% per year over the past five years and its emissions are expected to increase 2.5% in 2019. Even with this rapid growth, it contributes around half the emissions of coal.

Previously dependent on pipelines for transport, natural gas markets are becoming more global as liquified natural gas (LNG) markets grow – LNG trade is up 10% in 2018 alone. This is reducing regional price differences and driving demand where prices are dropping, mainly in Asia.

虽然有时将天然气视为煤炭和可再生能源之间的桥梁燃料,因为它会发出一半二氧化碳在煤炭上,现在在天然气基础设施中进行的投资将锁定其使用以及几十年来的排放,从而延迟了向低碳资源的转变。例如,2019年,美国联邦能源监管委员会已有approved11 LNG出口项目。

Most critical to watch is whether natural gas is replacing or adding to coal use. So far, replacement appears to be happening in some major markets, like the United States, but not in others, like Japan, where it is substituting for lost nuclear power.

5. Oil Is on the Rise, Driven by Increasing Demand for Transport

与天然气一样,全球石油的使用也继续增加,在过去十年中,每年平均每年1.9%,占全球化石燃料排放的三分之一以上。大约一半的石油用于陆地运输,需求增加,许多发达国家和许多发达国家。在美国,每人几乎有一辆车辆,而在许多发展中的市场中,这个比率远低于中国,每六人为一辆车,印度每40人每40人。在中国,印度和其他发展中市场上增加私家车的预测表明,对石油的需求将继续增长。

Airline travel, while representing only 8% of emissions from global oil use, is also growing. The number of passenger trips is up 7% per year on average from 2013 through 2018 and shows potential to continue, especially in developing countries where per capita use of airline travel remains comparatively low.

6. Solutions Exist

许多方法可用于脱碳经济,包括用可再生能源代替化石燃料和设定燃油效率标准。至少18 countries已经表明,随着经济的增长,国家排放水平可能下降。需要的是,越来越多的国家承诺这样做,并改变其经济以快速脱碳。

COP25机会

本月在马德里举行的国际气候会议COP25为各国提供了一必威官网是真的吗个关键机会,以表明他们将增加其国家气候承诺的野心,即被称为国家确定的贡献或NDC。六十八已经表示他们将在2020年增强其NDC, but they represent only 8% of global emissions. Major emitters need to step forward and lead the world.

While this year’s report indicates a lower growth rate than the past few years, even zero growth in emissions is not enough. Furthermore, on top of rising emissions during the past few years, preliminary data estimates for 2020 suggest that emissions will continue to increase next year. We need to actively bend the emissions curve downwards to have any hope of being on track for a world that is well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and ideally less than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) warmer than before the Industrial Revolution. Only by getting emissions growth below zero can we realistically expect to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

Editor’s note: Updated with information from WRI’s Climate Watch data platform.