The Paris Agreement signing ceremony at the United Nations in New York last weekexceeded all expectations。A record-breaking 175 Parties (174 countries plus the European Union) signed on, and a further 15 countries also deposited their“批准，接受或批准工具”，使他们成为正式加入的前15个政党巴黎协定。

太平洋和加勒比群岛领导了巴巴多斯，伯利兹，斐济，格林纳达，马尔代夫，马歇尔群岛，毛里求斯，瑙鲁，帕劳，帕劳，圣基茨和尼维斯，圣卢西亚，萨摩亚和图瓦卢。索马里成为第一个加入的非洲国家，也是第一个最不发达国家（LDC）。巴勒斯坦在2015年12月18日仅加入了《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC），并于周五加入。必威官网是真的吗

动力不停在那里。至少有27个国家表示，他们打算在今年或在国内批准程序允许的情况下加入《巴黎协定》，即美国和中国。这些国家结合在一起，将总数带到42 countries representing 49.3 percent of emissions。That’s pretty close to必要的阈值for the Paris Agreement to become legally binding—when 55 Parties representing at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions join.

填补6％的排放差距

So assuming all of these countries do join the Paris Agreement early, which countries will it take to cross the 55 percent emissions threshold?

以下是关于世界如何达到全球排放量55％的四种可能的情况。请记住，这只是硬币的一方面，至少有55个国家也需要加入协议。

一个人完成：俄罗斯

如果俄罗斯与上述国家一起加入巴黎协定，将达到总排放门槛。如果发生这种情况，那不是俄罗斯的第一个 -the country also triggered entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, the previous international climate agreement在UNFCCC下。

俄罗斯议会是联邦议会，必须通过多数投票来批准该国加入。鉴于俄罗斯尚未提供任何打算加入巴黎协定的迹象，因此该国不太可能在政治上优先考虑这一点。

选择两个：巴西，印度和日本

Brazil, India and Japan are all relatively large emitters. If any two of these three countries were to join, the 55 percent of global emissions threshold would be met.

Brazil must get the approval of both houses of its National Congress to join. On MondayBrazil’s government indicatedit would ask its National Congress to do just that, but it’s unclear whether this will happen anytime soon given the当前的政治动荡。

印度和日本都没有对他们何时加入巴黎协定的坚定声明，但是印度的环境和能源部长已经强调了该国对解决方案的一部分的承诺，并实现其目标国家气候承诺必威官网是真的吗。在签署仪式上，日本表示将开始必要的准备工作以批准，但没有提供时间表。

对于印度，加入协议的决定是行政政府的。对于日本，其立法机构的两所房屋必须批准进入，其中三分之一的房屋成员参加了多数票。然后，该协议必须在皇帝证明之前向内阁寻求建议和批准。

三重比赛：日本，南非和韩国

The emissions threshold would also be met if Japan, South Africa and South Korea all joined. Both South Africa and South Korea have expressed support for early entry into force and for taking the necessary measures to make this happen, but neither country has committed to completing the process in 2016.

对于南非和韩国，国内批准过程的性质取决于协议的性质。

If South Africa considers an agreement to be technical, administrative or executive in nature, the executive government has authority to join. Any other international agreement must go to both houses of South Africa’s Parliament for approval by a majority vote in each house.

South Korea’s National Assembly must consent to join any international agreements that relate to mutual assistance or mutual security; important international organizations; friendship, trade and navigation; peace; legislative matters, or any agreement that restricts the sovereignty of or places important financial obligations on the nation. Given its global significance, the Paris Agreement is likely to fall into one of these categories.

品种包

上述方案都集中在少量相对较大的发射器上，使我们超过了55％的排放阈值。但是，还有许多其他可能的国家组合。最不发达国家—which account for more than 3 percent of global emissions—as a group have already committed to join the Paris Agreement early. Combined with the 42 countries above, that brings us well over the 55 countries threshold, but still shy of the emissions threshold.

Countries that could play an important role in filling the emissions gap include small-to-medium size emitters: Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Iran, Turkey, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia and Peru.

Regardless of which countries are the ones that get us to55个国家和55％的排放的双阈值, the significant political will demonstrated last Friday at the signing ceremony increases the likelihood that the Paris Agreement will enter into force early—perhaps even this year. The focus now shifts to turning countries’ national climate plans into steel-in-the-ground projects, ensuring the world meetsthe ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement。