这篇文章是WRI博客系列的第一部分：创造可持续的食物未来。” The series explores strategies to sustainably feed 9 billion people by 2050. All pieces are based on research being conducted for the forthcoming世界资源报告。

到2050年，世界如何以促进经济发展并减少对环境压力的方式养活超过90亿人的人？这是世界上四十年来世界面临的最高问题之一。

Answering it requires a “great balancing act” of three needs—all of which must be met simultaneously.

平衡3需求

  1. 世界需要缩小当今可用的食物数量与2050年所需的额度之间的差距。根据new WRI analysis, we’ll need about 60 percent more food calories in 2050 than in 2006 if global demand continues on its current trajectory. This gap is in part a function of increasing population and wealth. The United Nations projects that the global population可能会成长from 7 billion in 2012 to 9.3 billion by 2050. At least30亿人到2030年可能会进入全球中产阶级，它们几乎可以肯定会要求more resource-intensive foods像肉类和植物油一样。同时，约8.7亿of the world's poorest people remain undernourished even today.

  2. 世界需要农业来为包容性的经济和社会发展做出贡献。农业雇用超过20亿人世界各地 - 占全球人口的28％以上。根据世界银行的说法，农业部门的增长can reduce poverty比其他经济部门产生的增长更有效。如果世界要以减少贫困，减轻饥饿感，产生收入和工作以及使妇女受益的方式，我们需要一个强大的农业部门。

  3. 世界需要减少农业对环境的影响。例如，农业负责约24％of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 and therefore contributes to climate change. Agriculture is the占主导地位的驾驶员of tropical deforestation. Furthermore, agricultureaccounts for about 70 percentof all the freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes, and aquifers.

世界资源报告是什么？

The World Resources Report (WRR) provides decision makers from government, business, and civil society with analysis and insight on major issues at the nexus of development and the environment. Spearheaded by the World Resources Institute, WRR has been the product of a unique, long-term partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and The World Bank. This year, L’Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) and Le Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), two major agricultural research institutions in France, have joined as analytical collaborators. For more information about the WRR or to access previous editions, visit the世界资源报告网站。

当然，有多种方法可以孤立地满足这些需求中的任何一种。例如，到2050年，世界可能能够通过将其剩余森林的广大地区转化为农作物和放牧土地来缩小食物差距。但是，这样做会使农业对气候，生态系统和长期经济发展的影响加剧。必威官网是真的吗相反，要实现伟大的平衡行为，世界需要同时满足所有三个需求。

A Menu for a Sustainable Food Future

There is no silver bullet to accomplishing the great balancing act. But there are potential solutions. When combined effectively, these solutions could close the food gap, contribute to global development, and reduce food’s environmental impact.

在WRI的新工作文件中伟大的平衡行为，我们提出了这些潜在解决方案的“菜单”。一些菜单项减少了预计的消费增长，例如减少粮食损失和浪费。其他菜单项会增加食品生产，例如将退化的土地恢复为农业生产力。菜单上没有任何物品可以单独实现可持续的食品未来，而且在国家和食品连锁店之间，物品的相关性会有所不同。但是，解决方案的结合应有助于养活世界，同时促进减贫，性别平等，生态系统保护，减少温室气体排放和可持续的淡水管理。

伟大的平衡行为是一系列工作论文中的第一篇，我们将在接下来的12个月中推出。随后的每篇论文将详细介绍一个潜在的解决方案，该解决方案可以帮助实现可持续的食品未来。这些分期付款将为2013 - 2014年世界资源报告中的基础和最终奠定基础：创造可持续的食品未来。要了解有关该系列的更多信息并注册以接收更新，请访问世界资源报告网站。

With the right combination of approaches and unwavering commitment, the world could feed its 9 billion future inhabitants while simultaneously securing economic and social development and protecting the environment. The solutions are there. But governments, the private sector, and civil society will need to act quickly and with conviction.