Imagine a world just six years from now, when water governance is weak and there are no laws to manage water in a drying climate. Government provides scant support for cooperation to manage surface and groundwater, as population and demand for water grow. By 2030, deforestation reduces the amount of water the soil can retain, cutting crop yields. By 2040, water demand exceeds supply, spurred by irrigation needs and a fast-growing population. Higher temperatures and longer droughts mean the loss of basic grains. The global weather patterns El Niño and La Niña may affect food security, and poverty increases.

This grim picture is the most pessimistic of three scenarios developed at a WRI workshop in Trifinio, Guatemala, on September 25-26, 2014. Intelligently imagining the future in this way can motivate decision makers to make more water available for agriculture and human consumption, possibly by promoting alternative, less-thirsty businesses like tourism and handicraft-making. They may also improve agroforestry systems and soil conservation to conserve water on farms. Small farmers might decide to harvest rainwater and switch technology to use water more efficiently and productively. In this scenario, however, the challenge of increasing access to water remains.

场景和决策的重要性

方案are descriptions of plausible futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future developments. They are not predictions, projections or forecasts but provide contexts in which decision makers can make plans.方案使决策者能够与各种合理的未来合作。

One key challenge is addressing uncertainty, especially when we don’t know the exact impact of climatic change in a particular location due to unpredictable weather patterns. Developing scenarios that take climate and other socio-economic uncertainties into account can help to directly tackle issues we are less sure of. It allows decision makers to take various uncertainties into consideration in the planning process.

开发有关气候变化和水的方案必威官网是真的吗

为了帮助决策者制定场景和计划管理水和适应气候变化，Moushumi Chaudhury必威官网是真的吗WRI的脆弱性和适应团队, and Tien Shiao and Paul Reig ofWRI的渡槽团队，在Trifinio（中美洲旱地走廊的一部分）的Trifinio进行了研讨会，该区域通过减少生态系统之间的碎片来保护生物多样性，从而使动物自由迁移。该走廊还设有农业和森林管理领域。

TheCGIAR气候变化，农业和粮食安全研究计划必威官网是真的吗, the美国农业合作学院，和国际合作大学与WRI合作组织研讨会。该研讨会是在Trifinio举行的，因为决策者希望更好地管理该地区的流域。随着该地区变得更干燥，决策者开始关注干旱对生计的影响，尤其是在危地马拉最贫穷的地区之一。水是想要安装水坝以产生水力发电的糖生产商，小农户和政府中的一个有争议的问题。所有这些利益相关者都需要水。环境和农业部，咖啡公司，市政当局，研究机构和发展组织的代表参加了研讨会。

为期两天的研讨会教授了制定场景和计划的技术。三个小组通过整合了三个场景，即当场，中度和悲观渡槽图, crop data, and enabling factors and barriers to water management. Then participants used a technique called “back-casting,” where plans in each scenario are plotted on a timeline starting from 2040 and ending in 2020. This allowed participants to make long and short-term plans. This is important for climate change adaptation, and reducing bias to only plan for the near future. The groups then reviewed the plans to test their strength under different scenarios. Those plans that worked under all scenarios are stronger and are referred to as “robust”. Robust plans withstand various uncertainties in the scenarios, and therefore, can be applicable in various decision making contexts

In addition to the pessimistic scenario, participants created optimistic and middle-of-the-road scenarios. The middle-of-the-road scenario imagined increased social conflicts by 2040 due to water scarcity, driven by population growth, poor resource management and climate change. In turn, water scarcity led to low crop yields, high food insecurity, and a migration to cities. To counteract this, decision makers promoted conservation and sustainable agriculture. This view envisioned improved participatory decision-making and partnerships to address water scarcity.

The optimistic scenario saw an exemplary economy with well-established coffee cultivation contributing to sustainable social and economic development, adopting unique, integrated approaches to support the local economy through eco-tourism and sustainable agriculture. In this scenario, farmers grow basic grains under adequate land management and natural resources governance practices. However, social concerns and some poverty persist due to the loss of per capita agricultural land, particularly amongst bean and corn growers, requiring plans to reduce social problems and poverty.

前进的道路

决策者选择适应和水管理的情况和计划最终将取决于各种因素，例如政治可行性，实施成本和对计划的社会接受。无论结果如何，场景都为决策者提供了更清晰的想法，即他们的计划将来可能会产生数年甚至数十年的影响。