Editor’s Note: The original version of this post, published on March 31, 2015, stated: “… if Mexico achieves its goal, its 2030 emissions will be 614 megatonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gases without international support, or 504 Mt with support.” These figures were based on an earlier version of Mexico’s INDC, which listed Mexico’s 2030 baseline as 787 Mt CO2-equivalent. A subsequent version of the INDC lists the baseline as 973 Mt CO2-equivalent. As a result, this post has been updated on June 5, 2015 to read “… if Mexico achieves its goal, its 2030 emissions will be 759 megatonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gases without international support, or 623 Mt with support.”

2012年，墨西哥成为第一个通过全面气候变化立法的发展中国家。必威官网是真的吗上周，它通过成为第一个发布其2020年后气候行动计划的发展中国家或必威官网是真的吗“预定的全国确定贡献”（INDC）。

墨西哥的INDC诺言将其温室气体排放量减少22％，到2030年将其黑碳（烟灰）减少51％，，，，relative to business-as-usual levels. Its goal—combined with the INDCs of other countries around the world—will help form the basis of the new international climate agreement to be finalized at the climate summit in Paris later this year. Here’s a look at the strengths and weaknesses of its INDC.

INDC对缓解和适应有何评论？

墨西哥将在2026年达到其温室气体排放量，以实现其减少目标的22％，其长期目标是到2050年相对于2000年水平将排放量减半。在国际支持下，墨西哥表示，到2030年，它可以将其温室气体排放量减少36％，而黑碳则可以减少70％。

墨西哥也是第一个在其INDC中包括全面适应部分的国家。它突出了三个目标：将被认为“最脆弱”的城镇数量减少了50％，同时还可以防止新城市进入这一类别；必威官网是真的吗到2030年将森林砍伐率降低到零；并保护战略基础设施，同时改善农业和经济等系统。

墨西哥的承诺值得注意？

墨西哥的INDCstands out for several reasons because it:

  • 提供温室气体减少，而不是国际支持。墨西哥的22％的减少目标并不是国际支持，例如发达国家的气候融资。必威官网是真的吗这与墨西哥在哥本哈根的承诺和坎昆的承诺将到2020年减少30％的排放，取决于国际支持。

  • States its emissions peak year.科学告诉我们，全球排放must peak by 2020从长远来看将变暖限制为2°C并避免气候变化的最严重影响。必威官网是真的吗通常是considered fair和公平for developed countries to peak their emissions earlier than 2020 and developing countries to peak somewhat later. Limiting warming to 2°C also depends on the actions of other major emitters, but it is encouraging that Mexico took the step of identifying a peak year.

  • 包括黑碳。黑碳是一种短暂的气候污染物。必威官网是真的吗减少黑碳为气候和人类健康提供了一系列好处。必威官网是真的吗

  • 包括适应。适应部分将国家适应策略从灾难的反应之一转移到了预防之一。它解决了性别和人权的关注，也认识到与私营部门和金融参与者（如保险市场）合作的重要性。

墨西哥的承诺有多透明？

INDC中的透明度必须了解承诺将如何影响全球排放，以促进国家之间的信任和问责制和跟踪进步。与Lima Call for Climate Action，，，，WRI的开放书计划provides a set of indicators for evaluating INDC transparency. According to this framework, Mexico has done well by:

  • 量化其减少排放的基线。This information enables us to conclude that if Mexico achieves its goal, its 2030 emissions will be 759 megatonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gases without international support, or 623 Mt with support.

  • 将目标转化为高峰年和温室气体强度降低。While Mexico’s primary pledge is relative to a business as usual trajectory, including information on the peak year and GHG intensity enhances understanding of how its goal will be achieved, and how it compares with other countries’ targets.

  • Clarifying what can be achieved with and without international support.This fosters accountability – to ensure that Mexico delivers on its unilateral pledge and that the international community delivers support.

  • 将温室气体还原目标与黑碳目标分开。由于黑碳全球变暖潜力周围的巨大不确定性和区域变化，研究人员have questionedwhether it is appropriate to use a single metric to track greenhouse gas and black carbon reductions. It’s helpful that Mexico disaggregated its goals – though the aggregated 25 percent goal, which it has also provided, should be interpreted with caution.

  • Providing information on why its contribution is fair and ambitious.Mexico provides data on its per capita emissions (5.9 tons) to justify why its plan is fair compared to that of other countries, though it does not compare those emissions to the global average. Mexico also states that its plan is ambitious because it will generate synergies between mitigation and adaptation activities.

什么可以改善？

Despite these strengths, Mexico could also improve upon its transparency by:

  • Further clarifying the baseline.In the past, Mexico has changed the baseline associated with its 2020 pledge, which contributes to uncertainty about future emissions and makes it difficult to track progress. Mexico should clarify whether the baseline associated with its 2030 goal will be allowed to change, and if so, under what circumstances. Additionally, Mexico should clarify the projection method and key assumptions used to develop the baseline scenario.

  • 澄清排放峰值的水平。Global temperature ultimately depends on cumulative emissions. While we commend Mexico for specifying its peak year, clarifying the level at which it expects its emissions to peak would provide even greater clarity on Mexico’s cumulative emissions over the coming 15 years.

  • 详细说明需要什么支持才能实现条件目标。作为发展中国家，墨西哥有理由期望获得一定程度的国际支持，以实现最大的减少排放量。但是，没有进一步的信息有关需要多少支持，但是，不可能判断墨西哥是否可以实现其有条件的缓解和适应目标。发达国家反过来需要响应这些财务需求。

  • Explaining the relationship of the INDC to the 2020 pledge.在墨西哥哥本哈根和坎昆的必威官网是真的吗先前气候峰会上，墨西哥保证将其排放量减少到2020年的30％。目前尚不清楚这与2030年的惯例相比，这是如何将其与往常相提并论的新保证。墨西哥应阐明基线的基线它的2020目标。

Mexico already wins the title of the first developing country to submit its INDC. It can truly secure its role as a climate leader by strengthening its transparency between now and the climate summit in Paris.