在三月下旬，Russia released its draft long-term strategy到2050年到2050年的经济发展和减少温室气体排放的多样化。鉴于俄罗斯在全球经济中的作用及其地位第四大温室气体发射机, the country's long-term plan is consequential for the world's efforts to rapidly cut emissions and avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Unfortunately, this plan misses the mark, allowing emissions to creep upwards through 2030 and not drop to net-zero until as late as 80 years from now. This also means missing out on the economic机会presented by the transition toward a low-emissions economy, including growing the renewable energy sector.

与1990年的水平相比，该战略草案将使到2030年的排放量减少33％，包括来自土地部门。虽然这对俄罗斯的改善是一个适中的改进current pledgeto reduce emissions by 25-30% over the same timeframe, the new plan still represents a significant increase in emissions relative to today. This is because Russia's emissions fell significantly in the early 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia's emissions today areroughly halfof what they were in 1990.

俄罗斯在战略草案中对四个长期途径或情景进行了建模，其中两种是明确集中于低碳发展。即使在该战略中最雄心勃勃的情况下，俄罗斯也只会达到“世纪完工”的碳中立性。这将比其他主要经济体晚几十年，这些经济体有适当的法律净零by 2050 (the United Kingdom, France, Denmark and New Zealand) or sooner (Sweden is committed to reach net zero by 2045).

这是策略草案的三个收获：

1. Russia's Projected Emissions in 2030 and 2050 are Higher than Current Levels in All Scenarios

“基础”情景是指导俄罗斯提议的长期战略的主要情况。它涉及到2028年的当前气候措施，然后在2028 - 20必威官网是真的吗50年之间进行更积极的政策，主要集中在能源和资源效率上，并加强森林保护。一个“密集的”场景着重于其他措施，包括碳定价，可再生能源产生和大规模运输电气化等。其他两条途径不如基本场景雄心勃勃 - 一个途径不包括目前正在实施的措施（“无政府措施”方案），而另一种措施包括至2028年的当前措施，但不基于它们（“惯性”场景）。

在基本情况下，排放量将在2030年从当前水平增加到峰值。即使在随后的减少后，到2050年的排放量也将高于目前的水平。在密集情况下，到2030年，排放将从目前的水平增加到较低的峰值，然后在本世纪末降低并达到碳中立性或净零。

Scenario 定义
Without government measures 在不干预的情况下保存当前经济的技术和能源利用
惯性 实施至2028年的当前措施，但无法进一步改善能源效率或技术
根据 在2028年实施当前措施，在2028 - 2050年（森林保护，能源和资源效率）中采取更多积极的政策
密集的 基础加上其他措施（碳定价，更多可再生能源，电气传输）

根据最新的气候科学必威官网是真的吗, global carbon dioxide emissions must roughly halve by 2030 and reach net-zero around 2050 in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) and prevent the worst impacts of climate change. None of Russia's scenarios come close to aligning with this trajectory.

2.尽管可再生能源潜力

俄罗斯的电力组合以化石燃料为主，无碳能源提供36% of the nation's electricity（主要是核和水电）。目前提供的其他形式的可再生能源，例如风，太阳能，地热和生物能less than 0.1%。For comparison, the电力组合中的可再生能源分享2015年在巴西（包括大型水力发电），中国为74％，印度为15％，南非2％。

在基本情况下，俄罗斯的战略草案的电力组合并不能改变其电力组合。化石燃料将继续发挥主导作用，无碳能量仅占2050年电力混合物的43％。这与全球电力混合物中所需的可再生能源规模形成鲜明对比，以将变暖限制为1.5度摄氏，周围70–85% by 2050。

预计大型水力发电将在俄罗斯超过其他形式的可再生能源，从现在到2050年，增长了28％，但仍仅占2030年总电量混合物的16％，而2050年的总电量混合物则为18％。其他形式的可再生能源将占对于2030年总体电力组合的1.9％和2050年的4.4％。俄罗斯在2015年设定的5.4吉瓦可再生能源的目标是不变的。

But Russia has significant potential to grow its renewable energy sector, which comes with broader economic and societal benefits. As acknowledged by its proposed战略, developing renewable energy in all areas suitable could provide five times the amount of electricity currently needed. Increasing the share of renewables in the electricity mix to 30% by 2030 would save Russia每年最多80亿美元when factoring in benefits to human health. This would also include 1.1 million total jobs in the renewable sector by 2030. (Russia's hydropower sectorcurrently employs 65,000 people, ranking the country fifth in the world for jobs in this industry.)

3.气必威官网是真的吗候变化给俄罗斯带来重大风险

Because of its northern latitude, Russia is feeling the heat from a warming world far more than almost any other nation, warming 2.5 times faster than the global average. Russia's strategy makes the case that a warming climate presents some opportunities for the country, such as longer ice-free periods to navigate the Arctic Ocean, warmer winters (and consequently, reduced energy consumption), and increased crop production. The战略also notes, however, that Russia's high proportion of degraded land, lower soil fertility and lagging agricultural technology could keep farming opportunities from coming to fruition. The country faces significant risks from climate change, which the new strategy does acknowledge. These include increased risks of fires and melting permafrost. Russia's government auditorsestimatethat the country's wildfires between 2016 and 2018, which burned 15.7 million hectares, caused damages equivalent to $900 million (68.9 billion rubles). And融化永久冻土创造地面不稳定性，这可能会对建筑物，管道和其他基础设施造成重大损害。

俄罗斯的贸易也尤其受到全球向低碳发展的转变的影响。该国目前是world's largest exporterof fossil fuels. In 2018, Russia supplied Europe with其天然气进口的41％。But the European Union is aiming to reachclimate neutrality by 2050，一个目标，即使不是不可能的目标，很难达到其当前化石燃料消耗水平。培养较新的绿色行业可以帮助俄罗斯多样化其贸易并创造长期的经济安全。

俄罗斯必须加强其长期气候战略必威官网是真的吗

令人鼓舞的是，俄罗斯正在遵循其他八个G20国家，准备今年提交长期战略，这与巴黎协定的邀请to do so. Yet both Russia's 2030 and 2050 goals fall well short of what major economies must deliver to limit warming to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C, and are incongruent with the ambitions of many G20 peers. Now is the time for Russia to strengthen these targets to match the scale and pace of the climate crisis, and抓住经济机会from a low-emissions and climate-resilient economy.