在安第斯山脉的山脉中,冰川在气候变化的影响下撤退和稀疏。必威官网是真的吗Nearly four million人们依靠这些冰川来取水,但他们已经失去了将近一米在过去20年中的厚度。

在拉丁美洲以及世界其他地区也有类似的影响,并且有迹象表明这些变化正在加速和加剧。2020年匹配或超过该地区的几个气候必威官网是真的吗基准;2020年是中美洲最热门的三年之一,也是南美第二热。这与越来越多的干旱和野火相匹配。更敏锐的是,哥伦比亚,危地马拉,洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜是直接影响通过两个背靠背的4类飓风ETA和IOTA。两次风暴的强度增加已连接气候变必威官网是真的吗化。

所有这些都强调了满足2021年气候会议(COP26)的目标的必要性,尤其是必威官网是真的吗格拉斯哥条约与工业前水平相比,将平均全球温度升高限制为1.5度C的目标。

不幸的是,格拉斯哥的契约还有很多不足之处,而且很少有(如果有的话)可以确保达到这一限制。会议结束时,151个国家提交了新的气候行动计划(否则称为全国确定的捐款或NDC),以在2030年减少其排放。即使满足了当前的必威官网是真的吗NDC,世界也会受到世界的温暖。平均2.5度C

Fallout from the category-4 hurricane ETA in Nicaragua
Flooding following the category-4 hurricane ETA in Nicaragua. The increased intensity of storms is linked to climate change. Photo by European Union, 2020/D. Membreño

Change must ultimately come from countries themselves, implemented at the policy level and supported by platforms and actors across the economy. Unfortunately, the results of some of the commitments made were as mixed as the results from COP26 itself. Take Mexico and Brazil, by far the two largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters in the region, which chose to only match their prior NDCs, though some additional commitments were made. Colombia on the other hand made more ambitious commitments to reduce emissions, as well as protect its forested and marine areas. All three countries have also signed on to the全球甲烷承诺,,,,agreeing to cut global methane emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels.

We track the progress made on climate in these three countries, looking at the impact of agreements made at COP26 across key sectors and exploring how they can be built on ahead of COP27.

巴西:新态度,但仍然不足

巴西政府试图强调对应对气候变化的态度的改变,并使必威官网是真的吗新的承诺在COP26,到2030年将温室气体排放量减少了50%。尽管该目标超过了巴西在行动计划中的承诺,但它仅与2015年巴黎气候会议上的先前协议相匹配。必威官网是真的吗巴西最终离开COP26仅承诺与以前的气候行动相匹配,必威官网是真的吗seen as insufficient要实现将变暖限制为1.5度的目标。

亚马逊雨林是森林保护区最关键的领域之一,该雨林主要在巴西的边界内。巴西国家空间研究所的最新数据表明,森林砍伐的比率最高in the last 15 years.In 2019,森林砍伐率飙升,随着森林砍伐的下降逆转在Cerrado Biome中。If current trends continue, the Amazon Rainforest faces several crises, such asbecoming a net emitter二氧化碳和巨大的损失生物多样性。最近的研究表明,持续的森林砍伐导致潜在的“临界点”,其中亚马逊将不再能够维持自己的生态系统并过渡到类似稀树草原的生态系统

值得赞扬的是,巴西以及其他141个国家格拉斯哥领导人在森林和土地上发表的声明。这些国家包含90%的世界森林,并于2030年致力于制止和逆转森林损失和土地退化。该倡议得到了192亿美元的公共和私人资金的支持。

关于巴西对森林和土地使用的具体承诺,巴西环境部做出了几项具体的承诺:

  • 到2028年,取消非法森林砍伐,每年下降15%,直到2024年,2025年和2026年的40%和2027年的50%。
  • 到2030年,恢复并恢复1800万公顷(约4450万英亩)。
  • 恢复了3000万公顷的退化牧场(约7400万英亩)。

As part of the commitment to the Declaration however, the Brazilian delegation argued that the agreement should only apply to illegal deforestation, although the Declaration makes no distinction.According to MapBiomas,当前森林砍伐的99%是非法的。乐观地,如果巴西对非法森林砍伐进行打击,它将在宣言下达成其协议,并在保护亚马逊方面有很长的路要走。但是,重要的是要注意,该协议没有结合。

不幸的是,没有指标表明巴西已经开始解决这个问题,并且先前的环境支出提案have been vetoed

亚马逊热带雨林
An aerial view of the Amazon rainforest. Recent data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research shows the rate of deforestation is at its highestin the last 15 years.Photo by Neil Palmer/CIAT

哥伦比亚促进其雄心勃勃的承诺

哥伦比亚stands out for submitting a more ambitious emissions reduction goal at COP26, committing to a 51% reduction by 2030 when compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Encouragingly, this level of reduction will make the country’s decarbonization by 2050 a feasible scenario and will meet the target set by Colombia’s长期策略(Estrategia 2050。Furthermore, Colombia has also committed to reduce its black carbon emissions — the black sooty byproduct of burning fossil fuels — by 40% by 2030, compared to its 2014 levels. This reduction in black carbon emissionswould lead toimproved air quality and health within cities.

农业,林业和其他土地使用(AFOLU)部门是负责58%of Colombia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, tackling deforestation is critical if Colombia is to meet its emissions reduction targets by 2030 and 2050. Prior to COP26, Colombia加入了莱蒂西亚公约,亚马逊国家之间的协议协调造林计划并监督森林砍伐。在COP26上,哥伦比亚进一步致力于保护森林,并签署了涉及森林砍伐,土地使用和海洋保护的几项协议。除了领导人关于森林和土地使用的宣言,哥伦比亚还also committed森林,可可与和平倡议

Additionally,杜克总统宣布作为“ 30 x 30”倡议的一部分,其受保护的海洋地区的扩展旨在到2030年保护30%的海洋和陆地地区。这一公告将哥伦比亚提前八年提前达到八年,在2022年实现了目标。哥伦比亚也签署了the “Because the Ocean” Declaration,增进了对海洋保护的承诺。

哥伦比亚由33个国家 /地区选择哥伦比亚代表拉丁美洲以及加勒比海的执行委员会华沙国际损失和损害机制,COP26中的主要工具可以抵消气候变化的影响。必威官网是真的吗COP26的哥伦比亚代表团还签署了关于公平碳市场价格的声明,该声明寻求公平分配这些社区的收益和参与项目发展的参与者,并保证这些市场保护环境完整性并有效促进更大气候野心的工具。必威官网是真的吗

位于哥伦比亚西南部的高加索的山坡农场。
An uphill farm in Cauca, southwestern Colombia. The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector is responsible for 58% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. Photo by 2010CIAT/NeilPalmer

Mexico: A Mixed Bag with Opportunities Ahead

与巴西一样,墨西哥的承诺是结果的结合。尽管许多国家致力于进一步减少排放,但其他国家只是重申了先前的承诺,甚至对它们进行了反击。不幸的是,墨西哥在后一组中发现自己唯一的G-20国家without a net-zero target), with no commitments to further lower its emissions, and an updated climate action plan that utilizes the same percentage of reductions as in 2015. This means that Mexico’s commitments are not aligned with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C. Fortunately however, this plan被裁定为无效by a judge who considered it to be in violation of the country’s Paris Agreement commitments.

但是,有someCOP26的积极发展。墨西哥加入了the Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use, as part of the effort to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030; currently,Mexico is ranked在森林损失的前十个国家中,仅2020年,近30万公顷的原发性森林就消失了。该国还准备了2021 - 2024年可持续海洋经济的仪器战略,该战略已加入了16个国家。此外,墨西哥还签署了宣言advancing the transition to 100% zero-emission cars and vans by 2040, as well as the Global Methane Pledge. The latter commitment is especially significant, as methane emissions compriseapproximately 24%墨西哥的全热葡萄酒排放量以及最近的研究表明,墨西哥水域的石油和天然气平台可能发出10次甲烷比墨西哥的国家温室气体清单估算值更多。

着眼于COP27,墨西哥应该审查并加强其承诺,以使他们与更雄心勃勃的长期战略保持一致,以减少排放和打击气候变化。必威官网是真的吗墨西哥人在整个社会经济领域都有机会从雄心勃勃的气候规划和行动中受益于COP27的全世界。必威官网是真的吗

在墨西哥的瓜达拉哈拉(Guadalajara),学校和组织从市中心开始参加气候游行。必威官网是真的吗
在墨西哥的瓜达拉哈拉(Guadalajara),学校和组织从市中心开始参加气候游行。必威官网是真的吗Photo byFlickr,350.org/Juliet Evans

Stronger Commitments and Accountability Essential Ahead of COP27 — in Latin America and Beyond

11月在埃及的COP27在不太遥远的地平线上,不幸的现实是,世界仍然没有正轨充分解决气候危机。必威官网是真的吗许多拉丁美洲国家在COP26取得了进展,这是基于2015年在巴黎完成的工作。

Over the next 10 months, Countries across Latin America should revisit and strengthen the commitments made at COP26. Beyond these actions, it’s essential that wealthier countries and major emitters increase their 2030 emissions reductions targets if the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is to remain attainable. In addition, countries need to be held accountable for their commitments, and a focus on a just and equitable transition to net-zero emissions must be maintained. If not, COP27 may come to be seen as an exercise in futility, as the world continues to warm, and the climate crisis rages on.