In the lead-up to climate negotiations in Paris later this year, nearly 40 countries (including 28 in the European Union)have submitted向联合国提出了2020年后气候行动的建议,也称为必威官网是真的吗Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)。China is expected to join their ranks soon.

As the world’s largest emitter, anambitious来自中国的全面INDC尤其重要,既可以减少该国的影响力,又要为更大的气候行动而在国际上激发这种野心。必威官网是真的吗

Here are a few issues to consider before China releases its new climate action plan:

1) China Set the Stage with Joint U.S. Announcement

Last November, China发表联合声明随着美国限制温室气体(GHG)的排放,称其将在2030年左右的二氧化碳(CO2)排放峰值,同时“尽可能及时达到高峰”。到2030年,它还将将非化石燃料的份额增加到20%左右,超过2013年的两倍以上1。The United States pledged to reduce its emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, a commitment formalized in the美国INDC。考虑到中国的历史和人均排放量仍比美国的排放量还低得多,即使它的年度排放量已经增长,各国的历史和人均排放量仍然低得多。

尽管可能包括其他要素,但预计中国的高峰年目标将构成其INDC的核心。

2) China’s Climate Commitment Will Build on Significant Existing Efforts

在2030年或之前的排放峰值是具有挑战性的,但是鉴于中国在过去几年中所做的重大努力可以实现。受国家利益,例如能源安全,空气污染和预期气候影响必威官网是真的吗,中国取得了几项收益:

  • In 2013, Chinalauncheda $277 billion investment in improving air quality,instituted regional banson new coal-fired power plants, invested more in renewable energy than any other country (21 percent of the global total), and installed nearly 13 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic projects, about 50 percent比其他任何国家都多installed in a single year.

  • 根据初步数据2014年,煤炭生产和消费量在14年内首次下降。

  • 在2013年和2014年,中国launched七个试点排放式交易计划,并计划将政策扩展到国家一级。

  • 中国仍然是世界上最大的低碳能源投资者,去年投资约900亿美元,超过全球总数,几乎是美国500亿美元的两倍。

下图表明,与迄今为止其他国家相比,中国可再生能源使用的显着增长:

鉴于这些努力,有些analysts arguethat China’s economy has achieved a fundamental structural change that may allow emissions to peak earlier than 2030. Deep reductions following the peak, however, will require further reform.

3)观看三个关键要素很重要

The INDC is an opportunity for China to lay out details on its future climate action, in particular:

  • 高峰期承诺:到2030年,致力于二氧化碳排放峰值,这对于中国来说是一个重要的 - 甚至历史性的里程碑。INDC是中国提供有关此提案的更多细节的机会。我们将寻找更多的信息,以表明中国期望其排放峰的水平,以及在何种情况下,排放量可能早于2030年的高峰。

  • 扩大目标:The emissions peak year and the 20 percent non-fossil energy goal will likely form the core of China’s INDC. It’s not clear that the INDC will go beyond this to propose further mitigation goals, but a post-2020 emissions-intensity goal or a景观修复目标could shed further light on China’s future emissions trajectory. Moreover, information on how China will address emissions of non-CO2 gases (like methane and hydrofluorocarbons) – which now outstrip the total GHG emissions of countries like Japan and Brazil – would be welcomed by the international community.

  • 从这里到达那里:To meet its non-fossil pledge, China will need to install 800-1,000GW of non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity, greater than its current coal-fired capacity andalmost the total current capacityof the United States. Scenarios such as those published by IEA, and the联合研究通过麻省理工学院和圣华大学,在2030年达到顶峰时,中国将需要做出巨大的近期努力,例如限制煤炭使用并为碳定价。通过阐明其计划如何实现这些目标,中国可以帮助在国际利益相关者之间取得进一步的支持,以在巴黎成功达成协议。

令人鼓舞的是,中国已经将气候行动和清洁能源放在其国家议程上。必威官网是真的吗11月宣布的目标是中国对这两个优先事项的最新重要步骤。当中国提交2020年后的计划时,全世界应该更加清楚该国如何履行这些严重的承诺,并帮助每个人了解我们距离实现雄心勃勃的全球排放减少所需的距离,以避免气候变化的最严重影响必威官网是真的吗。


  1. The number was 9.8 percent before a revision of total energy consumption data was made in early 2015. The 8.8 percent is calculated by authors based on the revised data, assuming non-fossil energy consumption remains the same.↩︎