中国是发展中国家基础设施融资的世界主要来源之一。Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)是该国的大规模融资基础设施计划,活跃于100 countries。China has emerged as one of the most significant financiers of, and investors in, global power infrastructure, with520亿美元在过去的二十年中,在BRI国家投资了煤炭发电。

On September 21st, 2021, in a major departure from its practice of backing significant coal investments overseas, China保证it would stop building new coal power plants and support low-carbon and clean energy. A year later,evidence shows中国确实遵循并停止了网格连接的燃煤电力项目融资。现在,中国有机会将其丰富的资源和能力纳入加速脱碳。

但是,中国来自煤炭的枢纽并没有果断地结束化石燃料的海外金融。专家worryabout an unsustainable increase in China’s overseas gas investment as讨论to convert several invested coal pipeline projects to gas emerge, which wouldlock in数十年来,有风险的天然气供应和污染基础设施。

全世界可能负担不起更多的化石燃料投资,事实是,经济学表明,可再生能源对中国的投资将是更好的投资。随着国家渴望面临全球能源危机的可持续投资,中国在大规模促进绿色力量来源方面处于良好状态。

China Has Limited Opportunities in Natural Gas

限制全球温度升至1.5度C(2.7度F) - 极限科学家说,对于避免危险的气候影响是必要的 - 要求每年全球天然气的产量以及煤炭和石油必须大幅下降,直到2050年。必威官网是真的吗中国并不是天然气市场的主要参与者,并且不太可能将来成为一个。与日本和美国等经合组织以及主要多边开发银行(MDB)相比,中国在海外天然气发电投资方面没有比较优势

如下图所示,从2001年到2022年,日本,美国和法国占来自前十大国家的国际天然气发电投资的近60%,日本占据了市场的主导地位。中国仅排名13th,只有68亿美元的投资 - 不到日本的十分之一。

A Boston University briefing finds that MDBs also have invested heavily in gas power plants (eight banks contributed170亿美元从2008 - 2021年开始保证避免对化石燃料的未来投资)。相比之下,中国在海外的较小规模的天然气投资集中于天然气化学活动,而不是发电(仅30亿美元)。

Total overseas gas generation investment amount by investor countries

The top investor countries share some common attributes that China lacks. They cultivate and retain their comparative advantages thanks to mature gas markets at home, where experience in extraction, equipment manufacturing and engineering can be developed and then exported or used for a technical, knowledge-based edge in investing. In Japan, for instance, gas financing provides a means to support its already-substantial equipment and service exports, with significant backing from its development finance institutions (DFIs). In fact,39%在2000年至2018年之间,日本的DFI投资部署在天然气电源中。

相比之下,中国既没有成熟的国内天然气市场,也没有旨在出口技术服务的强大行业。天然气仅占3.3%of power generated in China in 2020, compared to 38% in both日本和the我们

中国的可再生能源优势

当涉及可再生能源时,图片是镜像。中国在其强大的国内市场以及在可再生能源融资中现有的比较优势处于良好的位置。

中国的比较优势始于其在可再生供应链中的丰富经验。中国主导着可再生制造业的全球市场72%全球太阳能制造业和50%of global wind turbines. That scale translates into lower prices; China boastscheaper-than-world-average风能和太阳能设备以及高效且低成本的设备供应链。中国还以工程,采购和建筑(EPC)承包商和设备供应商在可再生能源中的工程,采购和建筑(EPC),在国际市场上建立了竞争力。

Demand conditions are favorable, too. Countries China already works with through the BRI are increasingly interested in renewable energy, and many have their own ambitious net-zero emissions goals. Rising clean energy investment needs from emerging economies eager to decarbonize their grids will continue to be an important pull factor. The International Energy Agency (IEA) hasestimated到2050年,达到零排放的净收入将需要5730亿美元的可再生能源投资在2026年至2030年(约占总投资的86%),而化石燃料投资的需求仅为250亿美元。

Clean energy investment needs in emerging markets and developing countries to achieve net-zero

来自WRI的数据中国海外财务清单2.0与过去十年相比,与天然气投资相比,风和太阳能投资增长的令人鼓舞的迹象。尽管与水电相比,目前对风和太阳能的投资相对较小,但它们的投资很多强大的潜力与水电相比,生长越来越多地画社会和环境问题

中国可再生和天然气投资,2011  -  2021年

增加中国对可再生能源的投资仍然存在重大挑战

Still some challenges remain. Overall, the market for overseas solar and wind energy finance is tough for global investors to navigate. From country to country, there is significant unevenness in regulatory frameworks and policy conditions. The global economic downturn may play a role, too, as increasing shipping costs, soaring commodity prices and declining electricity demand change the investment calculus.

特别是对于中国国有企业,某些国家可能是禁止的for regulatory or national security reasons concerning foreign investment. And increasing地缘政治紧张局势也在某些地区发挥作用。而且,中国的dual circulation policy, created in 2020, also pulls the financial focus to its domestic market.

Like other international investors, Chinese ones also face financing risks in renewable projects. To mitigate the risks, financial institutions often ask investors or host country governments to provide guarantees. However, there is lack of sovereign guarantees provided for renewable projects, and Chinese corporates are unable to take on further liabilities by using their assets as collateral.

Sinosure, primary source of export guarantees from China, also has limited capacity on taking up more insurance for renewable projects, as it has used much of its quota for mid- and long- term insurance. All these factors make renewable projects less bankable.

中国如何成为太阳能和风冠军

太阳能电池板工厂中的工人从生产线上抬起一个新面板
In Jiangxi, China, workers in a solar panel factory lift a new panel from the production line. China is responsible for 72% of global solar manufacturing, dominating the market. Photo by humphery/Shutterstock

在下一代外国投资中,中国有利于中国更喜欢可再生能源而不是化石。但是,果断的步骤仍有待采取的措施。为了基于其在可再生能源的比较优势,中国应与BRI国家合作,以更好地理解和鼓励可再生能源需求。它还可以鼓励创新 - 不仅在可再生技术中,而且在使可再生能源更广泛的财务工具中。

确实,投资者应该能够找到将新金融产品与本地和国际合作相结合的协同作用。结果将是在能源需求激增的新兴市场中加速的可再生能源推出 - 全球双赢。