为什么我们现在需要变革性的方法来管理气候变化风险必威官网是真的吗

Growing impacts of a changing climate could dramatically alter the way people support themselves: certain crops may no longer be suitable in warmer conditions; water may become scarce due to increased drought; and rising seas may inundate land and contaminate aquifers with salt water.

我们将无法“气候证明”我们摆脱各种气候影响，以保必威官网是真的吗护发展增长，尤其是在气候敏感的部门（例如农业）中。最终，在某些情况下，气候影响将超出现有系统的适应性，需要对食品的生产方必威官网是真的吗式，土地的使用方式，谁的生活以及在特定领域发生什么经济活动进行根本性变化。

These types of profound systemic changes go beyond the conventional boundaries of resilience building, and are referred to by adaptation planners, practitioners and researchers as transformative adaptation. Transformative adaptation may become part of the broader set of approaches to address loss and damage caused by climate change, which will be a central topic of discussion at COP23. Starting now, we can learn to better identify where such transformative approaches are necessary and chart pathways that safeguard lives, jobs and cultures.

什么是变革性适应，我们需要在哪里？

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested in their 2014 report that the global adaptation community may need to consider "...altering the systems and structures, economic and social relations, and beliefs and behaviors that contribute to climate change and social vulnerability." Since then, the term transformation has gained momentum in adaptation policy circles.

但是应有选择地使用适应性的变革性方法。我们依靠用于食品，水和工作的系统的基本性质的变化可能是破坏性，昂贵且难以实施的。如果穷人被排除在决策之外，并且以进一步集中财富的方式重新分配权力，他们也有进一步边缘化的穷人。

Incremental "必威官网是真的吗气候证明“现有系统应继续在数十年来保护数十年的保护范围内免受气候影响的增加。必威官网是真的吗。

现在开始酿造：是时候改造咖啡了

咖啡生产提供了一个明显的例子，说明可以预期进行变革性方法的需求。随着温度的升高heat-sensitive coffee plants可能不再产生支持收入所需的收益率或在某些地点大大促进出口收入。

对气候预测和作物影响模型必威官网是真的吗的分析可以确定咖啡农可能有失去生计并陷入危机的风险的领域，以及现在可能过于冷的地区，但预计将更适合于咖啡未来。随着人们的意识将需要从长远来看，将需要更适合咖啡的地区的农民可以逐渐熟悉这种农作物，而替代作物可能会引入咖啡太热的地区。

在这样的情况下，需要更重大的变革性变化，长期计划可以减少破坏，分配成本并帮助受影响的社区参与决策。

国家规划者，资助者和联合国公司可以做什么

当政府官员，资助者，联合国公司，国际组织和从业人员共同计划，财务和实施变革性的方法来管理气候风险时，就会产生真正的优势。必威官网是真的吗国家规划师可以：

•建立能够预测可能成为必要转型的领域

•Allow key stakeholders, including the poor, to participate in decision-making避免集中力量并进一步将它们边缘化

•发展适应动作的途径that show the way from the current situation to one that better fits anticipated climate conditions

•Reduce disruption by phasing in significant changes gradually,而不是仅一次回应危机袭来

Once long-term climate projections and impact studies are better incorporated into strategic plans, funders could then expand their financing priorities to include more projects that put countries on the transformative pathways that governments have identified. The UNFCCC could also play a role in encouraging transformative action by giving early leaders in this area the opportunity to demonstrate their actions and lessons learned on the international stage.

必威官网是真的吗气候影响足够严重，需要对我们依赖的系统进行重大更改，无论我们是否为其计划而发生。提高我们提前识别此类情况并管理它们的能力比仅仅回应危机是更好的选择。

WRI's Climate Resilience Practice will share the preliminary findings of its research on transformative adaptation in agriculture in a series of discussions at COP23 in Bonn. These discussions will inform further research and development of a working paper on this topic, as well as future research under the Transforming Agriculture for Climate Resilience project.