该博客与Hessel Winsemius和Philip Ward共同撰写。Hessel是一名研究人员三角洲. Philip is a senior researcher at theInstitute for Environmental Studies of the VU University Amsterdam.

Last September, Hamberton Nongtdu woke to a loudspeaker at a nearby mosque blaring a warning:洪水即将到来.

Nongtdu, a Kashmiri resident, barely had time to rush to the third floor of her house before water burst through her gate and inundated the first and second floors. Nongtdu and her family survived, but unusually heavy monsoon rains in September 2014 triggered floods in India and Pakistan that claimed more than 500 lives. It was the year’scostliest catastrophe.

这些洪水可能是最近河流洪水中最戏剧性的，但威胁远远超出了东南亚。与其他任何类型的自然灾害相比，受洪水影响的人数更多。New analysisshows that approximately 21 million people worldwide are affected by river floods each year on average. That number could increase to 54 million in 2030 due to climate change and socio-economic development.

Quantifying and Visualizing River Floods Worldwide

The渡槽全球洪水分析仪，一种新的在线工具，可以量化和形象化全球洪水风险的现实。WRI与四个荷兰研究机构共同开发了该工具：三角洲，阿姆斯特丹VU大学，乌特勒支大学和荷兰PBL荷兰环境评估局，由荷兰基础设施和环境部的支持。该分析仪估计，世界上每个州，国家和主要河流盆地的当前和未来可能裸露的GDP，影响人口以及河流洪水的城市破坏。

Weranked 164 countriesby the number of people affected by river flooding. We found that the top 15 countries account for nearly 80 percent of the total population affected every year. These countries are all considered least developed or developing. Roughly 167,000 people in the United States, the highest-ranked high-income country, are affected every year.

河流洪水影响GDP

WRI analyzed which countries have the highest percentage of total GDP affected by river flooding on average per year, and each of the top 20 is classified as least developed or developing. India has by far the most GDP exposed, at $14.3 billion. Bangladesh is a distant second, at $5.4 million.

我们认为，在受影响的GDP百分比最大的国家中，河流洪水的潜在国家经济后果最高。例如，中国和巴西将分别排名第一和第五，受到GROSS GDP影响的名单。但是，他们的全国收入是如此之大，以至于他们删除了按照GDP的百分比排名的国家清单。

2030年的GDP暴露：发达国家和发展中国家之间的差异

Our analysis shows a clear trend across the world. In lower and middle-income countries, socio-economic development is expected to concentrate more people, buildings, infrastructure and other assets in vulnerable regions. So, the developing world is expected to see more GDP exposed to flood risks in 2030, driven largely by socio-economic change.

例如，印度面临的裸露GDP的潜在变化比其他任何国家都有更多的变化。分析仪估计，使用道路场景，印度目前每年的140亿美元GDP在2030年可能会增长10倍以上，至1.54亿美元。大约60％的增长可能是由社会经济发展引起的。

In the developed world, Australia, Croatia, Finland, Portugal, and Israel are expected see more GDP exposed to floods in 2030, driven primarily by social-economic change. On the contrary, countries like the Netherlands, Slovenia, Belgium, Ireland, and Switzerland will likely see increased GDP exposure driven primarily by climate change.

Climate Change Will Expose More People to River Floods

必威官网是真的吗与社会经济发展相比，气候变化是人口洪水泛滥的变化的驱动力，因为由于许多地区的气候变化，河流洪水的频率和强度都会增加。这种现象将扩大容易洪水的区域，并使洪水更有可能在这些地区发生。

必威官网是真的吗气候变化使发达和发展中国家的人口都处于危险之中 - 没有明显的区别模式。例如，在爱尔兰，目前有2,000人面临洪水风险。到2030年，有48,500人可能面临河流洪水风险，其中87％的差异将由气候变化驱动。必威官网是真的吗从发展中国家，巴基斯坦有71.5万人处于危险之中。到2030年，河流洪水可能会影响200万人，气候变化占70％的增加。必威官网是真的吗

意识和行动的工具

谁可以使用洪水分析仪？

  • International development and financing organizations像世界银行一样，可以优先考虑有望减少自然灾害风险策略的投资。

  • 国际自然灾害降低风险监测组织like the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction can evaluate baseline risk conditions and monitor progress of risk reduction activities.

  • (Re-) insurance companies可以快速评估其投资组合中的风险和预计风险趋势，并解释保险对潜在客户的重要性。

  • 跨国公司can assess risks to their global manufacturing facilities and supply chains and prioritize locations for further analysis and risk mitigation actions.

The risks may be escalating, but public and private sector decision makers can do more to prevent catastrophic damage before it happens.

与公共和私营部门决策者共享分析仪的易于访问的数据将立即提高他们对当前和未来河流风险的认识。有了正确的信息，决策者可以优先考虑降低风险和气候适应项目，并实施最可行，最具成本效益的选项（请参阅侧边栏）。必威官网是真的吗

保护数以千万名的人免受河流洪水和沿海风暴潮的危险，将需要数十亿美元和数十亿美元。但是从现在开始遵循工具的方向Global Flood Analyzerwill help decision makers in international relief organizations, reinsurance companies, multinational companies, and many others build advanced protection systems to protect people and infrastructure.

有关此分析背后的排名和方法的更多信息，access our data sets要么测试工具.