As per the updated nationally determined contribution (NDC), India now stands committed to reduce the Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030 from 2005 level and achieve about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil-fuel-based energy resources by 2030.

满足这些雄心勃勃的可再生能源目标，需要通过制定综合政策和经过深思熟虑的能力来在州一级进行干预。使用能源规划工具可以帮助利益相关者分析政策替代方案以实现合适的结果。

低排放分析平台（LEAP）是一种这样的集成能源计划工具，可以帮助州级规划师可视化中型到长期容量的增加和退休对年度供需需求平衡，避免能力增加以及相关的影响排放趋势。

执行摘要

泰米尔纳德邦（TN）富含可再生能源（RE），截至2022年5月，可再生能力（包括太阳能，风，生物质和小型水电）的份额达到46％。这构成约14.7％的安装RE RE的14.7％。印度的能力。

TN具有大约100吉瓦（GW）的风能的巨大潜力，其中包括30 GW海上风和17吉瓦太阳能容量。累积安装的RE包括风，太阳能，生物量和高速公路为16.46 GW（截至2022年3月），未来八年计划增加了更多的容量。但是，该州还继续增加热容量，其中一些热项目已经在管道中。

TN is a highly industrialized state with a peak power demand of around 17 GW for fiscal year 2022. Daily consumption is about 340 million units and the electricity demand is expected to grow multifold, given existing plans to support domestic manufacturing and electric vehicles.

本文探讨了四个低碳场景，分析了使用LEAP到2030年，RE渗透对电力部门的不同水平的影响。

It is observed that if the current situation continues without intervention, there is a sharp upward trend in emissions due to the high share of thermal energy generation. Hence, TN needs to start planning for phasing down or retirement of old and inefficient thermal power plants. Further, TN needs to prudently plan future capacity additions to avoid creating surplus (unutilized) capacity.

Utilities in 2030 will need to adopt an integrated planning approach that caters to changing demand by end users and varying supply trends due to increasing RE penetration levels in the electricity mix. States should deeply analyze their consumer-level demand patterns and explore the potential of demand-side energy-efficiency measures to avoid future capital investments and resultant emissions.

Such energy planning exercise could potentially inform the state in development of new policies, capital investment plans, budgets, multiyear tariff orders and decarbonization pathways.

Lessons from the TN case study can help state planners and policymakers to frame their thinking around electricity planning, considering both supply and demand options and help in identifying data gaps to enable a holistic integrated planning approach.