牛取代森林近两倍于所有其他商品加
虽然有些初级商品最近有数据,从而有可能估计更多年份的毁林情况,但所有初级商品至少到2015年都有毁林数据,因此从2001年到2015年的全森林砍伐在这里用于比较看吧
Goldman等2020获取更多信息
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所有分析商品解释57%的树覆盖损失农业单牛解释36%
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说明:地图显示森林替换面积为2级行政总面积的比重,此处不列林代木纤维和橡胶园地图,因为可用数据有限
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在全球范围,森林改牛牧场估计在2001至2015年期间造成45.1兆赫森林砍伐,比任何其他分析商品高五倍
看吧
数据方法Goldman等2020详细信息分析假设清除牧场牛密度至少为每平方公里一头牛即构成森林换牛牛牛可以用于牛肉、奶品和皮革品生产,但草场也常用作为持有土地供未来使用的一种方式。
大部分森林砍伐发生在巴西(21.8兆赫或48%),其次是巴拉圭(9%)和哥伦比亚(5%)。帕拉州和马托格罗索州巴西森林面积最大,牛取而代之,2001至2015年期间各约5兆赫
多点
在巴西,基于图像处理和地理处理实验室提供的详细草场地图LAPIG2018年
LAPIG网站
略多于2001至2015年全国树覆盖损耗面积的一半(4.22兆赫)为草场采伐70%的森林砍伐发生在巴西亚马逊州,另外20%发生在塞拉多州亚马逊森林与牧场相联于2005年峰值后下降约一半塞拉多森林砍伐在2004年达到峰值,但随后比亚马逊降幅小得多。生物群落下降时间对应干预和公共政策变化,以减少巴西亚马孙法律中的森林砍伐,这也包括Cerrado的一部分
参考Nepstad等(2014), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248525 .
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亚马逊占巴西森林面积的70%由牛取代,Cerrado增加20%
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改变森林牧场动机涉及多重交互因素研究显示牧场扩展尽管牧场利润率极低或负差
Carrero和Fearnside2011 网站s/www.jstor.org/stable/26268895Davalos等2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.018 .
土地持有者可以将森林转换为草场作为一种土地投机形式,以确保土地保有制,或是出于社会和文化原因,而不是盈利。
Brown等2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.02.003!Carrero和Fearnside2011 网站s/www.jstor.org/stable/26268895Garrett等2017, https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10088017 .
巴西牧场平均生产率远低于其潜力但也意味着有可能满足巴西未来对肉的需求而不清理更多森林
斯特拉斯堡等2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.001 .
研究显示大豆扩展与采伐草场密切相关豆生产扩展为原草场,将草场推向林地并增加土地价值
理查兹等2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.011 .
正因如此,此处显示的高森林面积代牛可能不是直接需求牛肉或奶品生产的结果,而是由于其他作物或猜想造成的偏移
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2001至2015年间油棕榈
种植园
在全球扩展22.4兆赫,将油棕榈总足迹增加167%
基础数据从Harris等(2019), //www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/planted-trees .更多细节见Goldman等(2020), //www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation .
近一半(10.5兆赫)扩展发生在自2001年以来失林的土地上,3.5兆赫扩展至原为土地
初级林
2001年
看吧
数据方法.详情见Goldman等2020年
//www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation.
三分之二以上已失林土地目前用于油棕榈种植印尼(7.0兆赫),另外2.7兆赫马来西亚中加里曼丹省、东加里曼丹省以及印尼和马来西亚沙捞越省森林受重创尤甚,油棕榈种植园占用超过100万
公有土地
2001至2015年期间在上述每个辖区内失林印尼和马来西亚半数以上(分别为53%和57%)新油棕树种植园取代森林利比里亚、所罗门群岛和加蓬三国都比印尼和马来西亚少得多油棕榈扩展,但半数以上扩展导致森林砍伐(分别为74%、54%和54%)。
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此前用于油棕树种植园的土地上发生的森林砍伐量在2001至2012年间明显增加 — — 2009至2012年达到峰值 — — 后在2015年下降为创纪录低点,这是印尼和马来西亚总体森林砍伐率下降六倍以上的一部分。研究引证粗棕榈油价格下降(森林砍伐率下降通常延后一年)、印尼暂停新许可转换原生林和泥炭地(2011年实施)以及企业零毁林承诺作为下降的可能解释
Austin等2019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db!Gaveau等2019, https://doi.org/101111/conl.12622
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油棕树园用地转换并不总是直截了当的在婆罗洲,一项研究发现,至少三分之二转换为工林(油棕榈和木纤维)的林区在清除前有选择采伐木材
Gaveau等2016年 https://doi.org/10.38/srep32017
四分之一以上婆罗洲棕榈种植园(27%)在种植油棕榈树前5年多仍清除因此,即使这些地区的森林最终被油棕树园所取代,但有可能首先为不同目的清除森林。为了更好地评估清除林区并立即种植油棕榈树,分析可受限确定在建立油棕树园前四年内发生森林砍伐的地区。总计6.2兆赫林在2001至2015年期间直接转换为油棕榈种植园,显示总体毁林趋势相似,因为以油棕榈取而代之
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南美大豆目前用地上的森林砍伐于2004年达到峰值并随后下降至该率的一半左右,这与巴西亚马逊、巴西Cerrado和巴拉圭总体森林砍伐下降相一致。自2012年以后还第二次下降,最显著的是阿根廷
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自2004年以来,南美每年由大豆取代的林区明显下降
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森林面积下降代之以大豆与巴西联邦计划减少亚马孙森林砍伐率(建立于2004年)、大豆盈利率下降(2005-7年)和产业引导在巴西亚马孙最近失林土地上种植大豆“假假暂停”(实施于2006年)。
Macedo等2011, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1111374109 .
巴拉圭和阿根廷还分别于2004年和2007年颁布了减少农业扩展毁林的法律。
Szulecka 2017, https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/61460/Chapter.ID_48221_6x9_Julia_Szulecka.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y!Volante等2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.03.025 .
2004年以后巴西亚马孙大豆取代森林率大幅下降Cerrado2004年也下降,尽管后来用于大豆的土地上砍伐率在2013年开始再次下降前反弹
大豆取代率自本世纪交替以来大幅下降,但研究表明大豆间接促成了亚马逊大片森林的砍伐
Barona等2010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024002!扎列斯等2019, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810301115 .
数项研究记录了马托格罗索和亚马孙原牧场豆种植的增加,有可能导致草场迁移,进而可能导致进一步砍伐森林。本文分析提供自2000年以来森林直接间接转换大豆分析还可能限于直接转换,只查看大豆建立后三年内失林区约二分半或3.9兆赫林区代之以大豆表示森林直接转换聚焦直接转换大豆还显示巴西亚马逊和Cerrado的不同动态在巴西Cerrado58%森林替换大豆直接使用,而在巴西亚马孙只有39%直接使用
西非以可可取代森林集中在科特迪瓦、加纳和喀麦隆
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七个国家有橡胶园数据(巴西、柬埔寨、喀麦隆、刚果民主共和国、印度、印度尼西亚和马来西亚),2001至2015年期间橡胶园替换2.1兆赫森林
看吧
数据方法脱机详情见Goldman等2020年
//www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation.
分析国家只占橡胶总产量的40%,中国、泰国和越南等重要生产国因缺少数据而缺失
粮农统计数据库,http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home
在分析国家中,印度尼西亚森林替换率最高(1.0兆赫),其次是马来西亚(0.7兆赫)。橡胶传统上作为混合农林业作业的一部分来种植,单树园现在支配橡胶生产
见Feintrenie和Levang2009,https://doi.org/10/1007/s118742-009-9086-2
后用于橡胶园的森林砍伐从2001年至2012年明显增加,然后下降至2015年,与2011年下降的橡胶价格相似,2015年下降至2015年
见世界银行商品市场,https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-sessions
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橡胶园从2000年到2015年替换2.1兆赫林
分析国家包括巴西、柬埔寨、喀麦隆、刚果民主共和国、印度、印度尼西亚和马来西亚
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近2兆赫林在2001至2015年期间被咖啡园所取代,其中1.1兆赫用于强咖啡,0.8兆赫用于阿拉伯咖啡
看吧
数据方法脱机详情见Goldman等2020年
//www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation.
由强咖啡取代森林在印度尼西亚最普遍(占全球总量的33%),其次是巴西(16%)、马达加斯加(14%)和越南(12%)。以阿拉伯咖啡替代森林在巴西(36%)、秘鲁(20%)和哥伦比亚(8%)最普遍
以后用于强咖啡的土地上砍伐森林在分析期间显著增加,但后来用于阿拉伯咖啡的土地上砍伐森林则保持稳定
robusta通常是低纬度全阳光生长,常用即时咖啡,亚洲和巴西消费者需求增加
Kurose 2019, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Asians-love-for-instant-coffee-fuels-Robusta-cultivation2 .
robusta从2000年占全球咖啡生产36%增长到2015年44%
见美国Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery .
偏高纬度农林系统通常生长先前的研究表明,在某些情况下,阿拉伯咖啡减慢了森林砍伐速度,因为咖啡种植区树免清理,因为阿拉伯咖啡可以在树荫下生长。
布莱克曼等2005, https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Deforestation-and-Shade-Coffee-in-Oaxaca%2C-Mexico%3A-Blackman-Albers/b5ca9cac55b3f1113b24fc1b5dd13a0d8301d5b6?p2df!Getahun等2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.05.001 .
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在有数据可查的国家中,森林替换木纤维园在印度尼西亚最普遍
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林区面积由木纤维种植园取代每年在2000年代初增加,近年来下降
分析阿根廷、巴西、柬埔寨、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、卢旺达、南非和越南
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印度尼西亚林园
特许
高山市hutanaman实战印尼语)
编译自印尼环境林业部,
这些地区依法指定种植林,但它们可能或可能不完全由种植场覆盖特许区损失1.7兆赫
初级林
从2002年到2022年,尽管并非所有损失都因木纤维生产所致林用木纤维种植园取代后,2012年林用园减产峰值下降,2013年开始下降(尽管不像森林替换分析那样剧烈下降)。
多点
印度尼西亚原生林减产2012年峰值,2013年初大幅下降
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森林范围分析受各种数据归因问题和方法假设的限制,其中包括:
- 商品数据集覆盖率和质量有限只有油棕榈最近详细绘制全球范围地图,甚至这些地图都可能排除许多小型种植园分析还使用南美大豆、巴西草场以及选定国家木纤维和橡胶园的详细数据除这些区域和商品外,分析依赖全球10千米分辨率数据了解作物和牧场范围
详情见Goldman等(2020), //www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation .
数据粗解析 粗解析假设 粗解析需要结果此外,这些数据取自2010年(2000年草场),因此用特定商品替代的森林量假设与当年面积成比例,如果自那以来该商品出现大幅扩展或收缩,则可能被虚报
- 数据无法捕捉复杂的土地使用变化转换本文的分析不计森林事件与建立商品之间的其他可能土地用途,但油棕和大豆案例除外,我们包括直接森林估计值分析也不考虑任何形式的间接土地使用变化(例如目标商品取代其他活动,转而扩展为林区)。间接土地使用变化可改变每一商品的毁林量,特别是油棕榈、豆和牛的毁林量
- 数据测量树覆盖损失而不是直接砍伐森林后用于目标商品之一的地区所有树覆盖损耗均假设为毁林,因为用作物或草场替换森林表示永久土地使用变化印尼和马来西亚历史数据被用于从分析中滤出2000年以前建立的油棕榈树,以避免计为树覆盖损损法旧非生产性油棕树
详情见Goldman等(2020), //www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation .
然而,印度尼西亚和马来西亚以外的油棕榈种植园或其它类型种植园中的一些种植动态有可能包括在数字中,并导致高估森林砍伐
- 数据可能遗漏树覆盖损树覆盖损耗数据可能检测不到与商品生产有关的所有变化可可和咖啡生产大都发生在小农场(小于一公顷)中,汉森等人可能无法捕捉(2013)
Hansen等2013, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693 .
树覆盖损耗数据导致低估这些商品的森林砍伐分析还可能低估干林和树林稀树草原面积的转换,Hansen等树覆盖损耗数据详细大豆和草场分析中,我们定义树覆盖为最小10%树冠覆盖(分析其他商品使用30%),以尽量减少南美生物群落(如Cerrado和Chaco)的低估值,这些商品在这两个生物群落中起着重大作用。
更多信息见Goldman等(2020), //www.365bettiyuzaixian.net/publication/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation .
深入探讨方法、假设和限制本分析Goldman等2020.
多点
{glossary's:{j'51':{j'am包括油棕榈、橡胶、可可、腰果、芒果、橙子(citrus)、平面、香蕉和椰子.grnspDark surfaces absorb the rays from the sun (low albedo).\r\n"},"94":{"name":"biodiversity intactness","description":"The proportion and abundance of a location\u0027s original forest community (number of species and individuals) that remain.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"95":{"name":"biodiversity significance","description":"The importance of an area for the persistence of forest-dependent species based on range rarity.\r\n"},"142":{"name":"boundary plantings","description":"Trees planted along boundaries or property lines to mark them well.\r\n"},"98":{"name":"carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"99":{"name":"CO2e","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"1":{"name":"deforestation","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"77":{"name":"deforested","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"76":{"name":"degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"75":{"name":"degraded","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"79":{"name":"disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"68":{"name":"disturbed","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"65":{"name":"driver of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"70":{"name":"drivers of loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"81":{"name":"drivers of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"102":{"name":"evapotranspiration","description":"When solar energy hitting a forest converts liquid water into water vapor (carrying energy as latent heat) through evaporation and transpiration.\r\n"},"2":{"name":"forest","description":"Forests include tree cover greater than 30 percent tree canopy density and greater than 5 meters in height as mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\n"},"3":{"name":"forest concession","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"90":{"name":"forest concessions","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"53":{"name":"forest degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"54":{"name":"forest disturbance","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"100":{"name":"forest disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"5":{"name":"forest fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other land cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"6":{"name":"forest management plan","description":"A plan that documents the stewardship and use of forests and other wooded land to meet environmental, economic, social, and cultural objectives.通常由公司在森林特许区执行.\r\n't's's's's's'sformations's's's's'forests树覆盖增益表示数种潜在活动, 包括自然森林生长或树园轮播周期.\r\n}, 143':{'命名':'全局土地挤压',描述':'有限土地资源为增长中的人类提供粮食、饲料和燃料并同时维系生物多样性和提供生态服务'7'{'命名':'hecore','descript's 100平米、2.47英亩或0.01平方千米并约等于橄榄田大小橄榄球场略小于一公顷(坑面积介于0.62至0.82公顷之间),\rn'},#66A football pitch is slightly smaller than a hectare (pitches are between 0.62 and 0.82 hectares).\r\n"},"67":{"name":"intact","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"78":{"name":"intact forest","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"8":{"name":"intact forests","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"55":{"name":"land and environmental defenders","description":"People who peacefully promote and protect rights related to land and\/or the environment.\r\n"},"9":{"name":"loss driver","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"10":{"name":"low tree canopy density","description":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\n"},"84":{"name":"managed forest concession","description":"Areas where governments have given rights to private companies to harvest timber and other wood products from natural forests on public lands.\r\n"},"83":{"name":"managed forest concession maps for nine countries","description":"Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Indonesia, Liberia, and the Republic of the Congo\r\n"},"104":{"name":"managed natural forests","description":"Naturally regenerated forests with signs of management, including logging, clear cuts, etc.\r\n"},"91":{"name":"megacities","description":"A city with more than 10 million people.\r\n"},"57":{"name":"megacity","description":"A city with more than 10 million people."},"56":{"name":"mosaic restoration","description":"Restoration that integrates trees into mixed-use landscapes, such as agricultural lands and settlements, where trees can support people through improved water quality, increased soil fertility, and other ecosystem services.失林或退化林区中密度(10\u2013100人/千米)更有可能恢复型"},"86":{"name":"natural","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"12":{"name":"natural forest","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"63":{"name":"natural forests","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"144":{"name":"open canopy systems","description":"Individual tree crowns that do not overlap to form a continuous canopy layer.\r\n"},"82":{"name":"persistent gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one gain event from 2001 to 2016.\r\n"},"13":{"name":"persistent loss and gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one loss or one gain event from 2001 to 2016."},"97":{"name":"plantation","description":"An area in which trees have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"93":{"name":"plantations","description":"An area in which trees have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"88":{"name":"planted","description":"A forest composed of trees that have been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"14":{"name":"planted forest","description":"A forest composed of trees that have been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"73":{"name":"planted forests","description":"A forest composed of trees that have been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"15":{"name":"primary forest","description":"Old-growth forests that are typically high in carbon stock and rich in biodiversity.GFR使用湿热带初级雨林数据集,表示近些年来尚未清除的热带森林.\r\n'}.64'The GFR uses a humid tropical primary rainforest data set, representing forests in the humid tropics that have not been cleared in recent years.\r\n"},"58":{"name":"production forest","description":"A forest where the primary management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products."},"89":{"name":"production forests","description":"A forest where the primary management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products.\r\n"},"87":{"name":"seminatural","description":"A managed forest modified by humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests.\r\n"},"59":{"name":"seminatural forests","description":"A managed forest modified by humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests.scriptroduction自中小型农作 损耗或永久采伐.\rn'}.103\rn'},17": {"命名':树覆盖',描述':所有高5米以上的植被 并可能采取自然林或林园的形式GFR使用大于30%树冠密度计算.\r\n't'sm树覆盖增益表示数种潜在活动,包括自然林生长或树园轮播周期。\0026nbsp;Assss树覆盖增益不等于恢复.\r\n},"18损耗不等于采伐树林.\r\n}.sqtrol:sqtrol