概要

该报告概述了澳大利亚的主要政策，这些政策可能会减少温室气体（GHG）排放。本文讨论了一种碳定制机制，可再生能源目标以及其他现有和新兴政策，以及当前政策方案对该国温室气体轨迹的影响。我们发现，如果完全实施，澳大利亚的气候政策框架使该国能够实现其全方位的国际承诺，以将排放量从20必威官网是真的吗20年的2000年级减少5-25％。

关键发现

The key risks to Australia’s achievement of its emission targets are:

  • Ongoing policy uncertainty:Investment in low-emission technologies is likely to be deterred by policy uncertainty around the future of Australia’s carbon-pricing mechanism and the LRET. The repeal of the carbon-pricing mechanism by a Coalition government would exacerbate this problem unless the Coalition establishes a credible alternative carbon-price signal. In the absence of such a signal, investments that go ahead will attract higher risk premiums, increasing the cost of the low-carbon transition in Australia.

  • Over-reliance on international markets:目前，欧盟ETS和清洁开发机制（CDM）的相对价格低，会鼓励澳大利亚发射器购买国际许可证，而不是减少澳大利亚境内的排放。这种做法可能阻碍了国内排放的减少，从而增加了澳大利亚对进口排放许可的依赖。反过来，这种情况增加了澳大利亚经济对国际碳价格波动的暴露，并减慢了实现长期国内转型所需的过渡。维持国际进口和直接国内政策干预措施的限制，以减少排放并提高能源效率（例如，更强大的车辆排放标准，限制逃犯的监管方法，限制逃犯的增加，对大型能源用户的能源效率义务）将降低这些风险。

执行摘要

This report outlines Australia’s policy framework for greenhouse gas emissions reduction, identifies areas of potential change in the near term, and attempts to evaluate the impact of current policies on Australia’s emissions trajectory to 2020. It assesses Australia’s international commitments, and the major policies of federal and state institutions to reduce emissions. It also assesses the likely success of these policies in achieving Australia’s emissions reduction goals. Australia has bipartisan political support for its international commitment to reduce emissions by 5–25 percent from 2000 levels by 2020, but very little bipartisan agreement as to how to achieve these reductions. The Clean Energy Act 2011 (and associated legislation known together as the Clean Energy Future package) implemented by the current federal government comprises a three-year fixed carbon price followed by a cap-and-trade scheme linked to the European Union (EU) emissions trading scheme and some Kyoto mechanisms. The federal government plans to change the legislation to bring forward the start of the cap-and-trade scheme to July 2014. When the trading scheme starts, annual caps on Australian emissions will be set by the federal government following recommendations by the independent Climate Change Authority (CCA). At this point, Australian entities will be able to use European and to a lesser extent Kyoto permits to meet up to 50 percent of their emissions liabilities, with the balance required to be domestically sourced permits. Full bilateral trading with the EU is intended to start in 2018.

除了这种碳定价机制外，中央联邦政策是41,000吉瓦小时（GWH）的大规模可再生能源目标（LRET），到2020年，可再生能源生成，清洁能源金融公司（CEFC），拥有100亿美元为了帮助部署低排放技术和碳养殖计划（CFI），预计在短期内影响相对较小的影响，但长期潜力很大。基于州的政策包括用于太阳能光伏（PV）的进料关税，能源效率义务和调节土地清理的法律。

The federal Opposition, two center-right parties in long-standing partnership known as the Coalition, has promised to rescind the carbon-pricing mechanism—both the fixed price and the emissions trading scheme (ETS)—and dismantle the CCA and the CEFC. The Coalition proposes to review the RET in 2014, despite a 2012 review by the CCA that warned further biennial reviews would increase investment uncertainty. The Coalition proposes to replace the carbon-pricing mechanism with a fund to purchase emissions abatement via reverse auctions, but has provided little information on how this would operate or achieve Australia’s target range. Legislative obstacles may prevent the removal of the current carbon-pricing framework.

Assuming the Clean Energy Future package remains in place, Australia is able to achieve its full target range, if it so chooses.

However, the degree to which this achievement relies on the purchase of international permits as opposed to emissions reduction within Australia depends on a range of factors, including the influence of European permit prices on Australia’s carbon price, the maintenance of the LRET, the winding back of state-based land-clearing laws and the implementation of policies under investigation such as light vehicle emission standards and a national energy saving obligation. Under current policies and prices, the Australian government projects that domestic emissions will increase, and the country would achieve its targets by purchasing international abatement. Recent changes to electricity consumption have not been factored into these projections.